Every presidential election, we witness the same familiar dance. Experts from both sides confidently predict their candidate’s victory, outlining why their side will come out on top. You know the routine. Much of it is pure projection—it's their job to go on television and give their side hope that victory is within reach. This election was no different. The polls claimed the race was neck and neck, which was not even close to being true. And Democrat experts shamelessly destroyed their reputations to boost Kamala.
Pollster Ann Selzer published a disastrously flawed poll aimed at rallying and energizing Democrats. Allan Lichtman, the so-called “election Nostradamus,” allowed his left-wing bias to skew his election model and make a bad prediction. Even famed Democratic strategist James Carville has joined the ranks of those who have compromised their credibility.
Any political strategist worth their weight in salt should have seen the Trump victory coming miles away. Yet Carville, one of the most famous and respected in the business, did not. Back in October, James Carville wrote an oped for the New York Times explaining why he was certain Kamala Harris would win.
"While I am not one to take part in the political prediction industry [...] today I am pulling my stool up to the political poker table to throw my chips all in," he wrote. "America, it will all be OK. Ms. Harris will be elected the next president of the United States. Of this, I am certain."
He said he was certain. And gave three reasons why.
He argued that Donald Trump is "a repeat electoral loser," and that streak would continue in 2024. He pointed to the 2018 Democratic House landslide, Trump’s 2020 loss to Biden, and the lack of a red wave in the 2022 midterms following the Dobbs decision. Carville contends that “abortion is on the ballot again — for president,” which will hurt Trump in swing states.
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The second reason was Kamala's money advantage. "Money matters in politics," he wrote. "If this weren’t the case, somebody would be wasting an awful lot of time raising it."
"Since joining the race, the vice president has raised an eye-boggling $1 billion, and last quarter one of her fund-raising committees reeled in $633 million — dwarfing what Mr. Trump raised with two committees combined." Carville apparently forgot that Trump was outfunded and outspent in 2016 when he defeated Hillary Clinton.
And finally, he said he just had a feeling. "My final reason is 100 percent emotional," he said. "We are constantly told that America is too divided, too hopelessly stricken by tribalism, to grasp the stakes. That is plain wrong. If the Cheneys and A.O.C. get that the Constitution and our democracy are on the ballot, every true conservative and every true progressive should get it too."
James Carville is the man who coined the phrase "It's the economy, stupid." Yet not once in his oped did he mention the word "economy." It's as if it didn't matter. Perhaps he was in denial, since polls showed Trump with the advantage on the economy. Or maybe it was sheer hubris. Several experts on the left tried to claim the economy was actually doing great, ignoring the way inflation has crippled Americans, but any honest person would have recognized the way Americans are struggling. Carville should have seen that the voters were going to reject the Democratic Party in 2024 because, as he said back in 1992, it's the economy, stupid.
