According to a memo from the Trump campaign that PJ Media received, Democrats are experiencing a significant turnout problem in early voting compared to previous elections. The data shows that Republicans are outperforming Democrats in absentee ballots and early votes across all the battleground states. The memo also highlights a decrease in urban turnout for Democrats, while rural turnout appears to be rising, potentially benefiting Trump’s campaign.
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"Democrats are spinning themselves and reporters by claiming that their voters will turn out on Election Day when polls show otherwise and, most importantly, that’s asking Democrat voters to do something they have absolutely no history of doing," writes Tim Saler, the head of grassroots targeting and the chief data consultant for the Trump campaign and the RNC. "If Democrats, who historically vote ahead of Election Day, haven’t been motivated to show up for Kamala yet, why do we expect them to show up tomorrow?"
Based on the early vote data, the Trump campaign is confident that Trump is looking good.
"President Donald J. Trump is going into Election Day stronger than he has in any previous election and if patriots across the country keep the momentum and turn out as expected on Election Day, we will be swearing in President Trump in January," Saler said.
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Citing Democrat data expert Tom Bonier of TargetSmart, the campaign memo shows that early voting data in key battleground states indicates a decrease in urban and female turnout compared to 2020, while rural turnout has increased.
- Arizona: Urban turnout is down by 385,285 votes; female turnout is down by 170,011; rural turnout is up by 14,124.
- Georgia: Urban turnout is down by 153,846 votes; female turnout is down by 46,732; rural turnout is up by 171,837.
- Michigan: Urban turnout is down by 321,523 votes; female turnout is down by 204,856; rural turnout is up by 55,951.
- North Carolina: Urban turnout is down by 175,470 votes; female turnout is down by 154,459; rural turnout is up by 26,911.
- Nevada: Urban turnout down by 191,199 votes; female turnout down by 126,112.
- Pennsylvania: Urban turnout is down by 381,519 votes; female turnout is down by 450,802.
- Wisconsin: Urban turnout is down by 100,733 votes; female turnout is down by 238,452.
This shift may benefit Republican candidates in these critical battleground states.
Last week, I interviewed Mark Mitchell, the head pollster at Rasmussen Reports. He is predicting a Trump landslide.
“I think this is Reagan/Carter,” he told me. “I think there are very specific reasons.”
“I thought this whole time that Trump would outperform my polling,” largely because voter loyalty has shifted and traditional party affiliation “means a lot less.” To account for this, Mitchell adjusted Rasmussen’s polling method to “weight by recall vote,” which focuses on how voters cast their ballots in 2020, rather than relying solely on demographics like age, gender, or race.
As a result, Rasmussen Reports' polling has been consistent during this cycle and shows Trump “up two points nationally,” revealing a “mind change of about 6-7 points” from Biden to Trump from 2020 to 2024. He attributes this shift to “low propensity voters crawling over broken glass to vote Trump” while some Democrat-leaning voters stay “on the couch in traditionally blue areas.”
It certainly looks like Mitchell is correct, based on the aforementioned early vote numbers. He argued that the polling industry is still “a little bit left” of reality and underestimates the enthusiasm among Trump’s base.
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