As we inch closer to Election Day, I’m sure everyone is feeling pangs of confidence and nervousness, excitement and dread, and pretty much everything in between. Even I have found myself uncertain at times about where this race is truly heading, and I suspect I’m not alone in that.
To help cut through the noise and give a clearer picture of where things stand, I spoke with Mark Mitchell, the head pollster at Rasmussen Reports, for his read on the race in these final days.
He told me he’s seeing an election comparable to 1980.
“I think this is Reagan/Carter,” Mitchell told me. “I think there are very specific reasons.”
He explained, “I thought this whole time that Trump would outperform my polling,” largely because voter loyalty has shifted, and traditional party affiliation “means a lot less.” To account for this, Mitchell adjusted Rasmussen’s polling method to “weight by recall vote,” which focuses on how voters cast their ballots in 2020, rather than relying solely on demographics like age, gender, or race.
Mitchell’s polling has shown Trump with a consistent lead, even “up two points nationally,” revealing a “mind change of about 6-7 points” from Biden to Trump from 2020 to 2024. He attributes this shift to “low propensity voters crawling over broken glass to vote Trump” while some Democrat-leaning voters stay “on the couch in traditional blue areas.” Mitchell argues that the polling industry is still “a little bit left” of reality and underestimates the enthusiasm among Trump’s base.
When I asked about whether he thinks Kamala voters are genuinely as motivated as Trump’s base, Mitchell expressed doubts, noting some Democratic enthusiasm seems “manufactured.” He explained that in Rasmussen Reports’ polling, “enthusiasm is always roughly a wash,” with young Democrats often overestimating their likelihood to vote. Mitchell points out that if Democrats were truly energized, polling would reflect it, but instead, it shows a close race. His state polling reveals that many Democrat numbers are down in key urban areas like Philadelphia and Atlanta, while “Republicans are crawling over broken glass” to vote.
According to Mitchell, swapping out Biden for Kamala didn’t generate the huge boost in enthusiasm Democrats needed. He dismissed much of the enthusiasm for Kamala as manufactured. “If they had that much enthusiasm for her, then her polling would be better, in my opinion,” he explained. When Harris stepped into Biden's place, “We showed a Trump +4 race become a Trump +2 race.”
So, while the Democrat crossover advantage for Trump disappeared a little bit, the shift in polling after she took over may have been due to election season response bias and not so much genuine enthusiasm for Kamala.
One of Trump’s more surprising moves this cycle has been his strong push for early voting, a tactic traditionally favored by Democrats. Mitchell believes this approach is “playing an anti-steal strategy.” By urging Republicans to vote early, Trump aims to neutralize any potential last-minute narrative shifts that might falsely claim a Kamala surge and demoralize Trump voters.
The good thing about that is that it is working. Republicans appear to be exceeding expectations with the early vote. However, some are saying this might be a bad thing because that means they’re “cannibalizing” the Election Day vote. But according to Mitchell, Republicans may be voting early, but they’re still set for a high turnout on Election Day. In his state polls, “50 to 60% of voters” say they’re planning to vote in person, with Trump leading among them by “Seven to 12 points depending on the state.”
Another fascinating aspect of this race is the role media outlets are playing in shaping voters’ perceptions. As Mitchell pointed out, the narrative coming out of left-leaning media outlets is often at odds with what the data actually show. For example, some outlier polls out of Michigan and Wisconsin have put Kamala ahead in the RealClearPolitics averages in those states. Mitchell wonders if these polls were put out to “muddy the water” and create a narrative favorable to Democrats. For example, he mentioned that the recent CNN poll in Wisconsin showing Kamala up six points is meant to give Harris supporters hope, even if the underlying data doesn’t actually reflect her having an advantage.
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When looking at the RealClearPolitics averages, Mitchell has consistently found that pollsters underestimate Trump’s performance, especially in key battlegrounds like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. “My personal opinion is that with Trump on the ballot, the polls always underestimate his state performance,” Mitchell explained, reinforcing his belief that the numbers may even be hiding a red surge.
As Mitchell sees it, “if [Trump] can pull off Pennsylvania… that’s probably the election right there.” With strong showings in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, a win in just one of the traditional blue-wall states could clinch Trump’s victory.
If low-propensity Republican voters turn out in droves on Election Day, Trump’s momentum may be difficult to halt. If Mitchell’s predictions are right, the 2024 election might just look a lot like the 1980 election.
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