Days away from the election, and the general consensus is that it could go either way. Donald Trump has had the momentum these final weeks, but the polls are generally within the margin of error, suggesting a coin flip of a race. What’s going to happen? I don’t know, but the signs point to one likely result.
There’s no doubt that the political landscape reveals troubling trends for the Democratic Party, particularly for Kamala Harris.
Recent analysis by CNN’s polling expert Harry Enten paints a stark picture, highlighting that only 28% of American voters believe the country is heading in the right direction.
“What’s the average percentage of the public that thinks that the country is on the right track when the incumbent party loses? It’s 25%,” Enten stated.
That’s bad news for Harris.
Enten elaborated that low public approval can create significant hurdles for incumbents: “Very few Americans think the country is on the right track at this particular point. It tracks much more with when the incumbent party loses than when it wins.” Notably, there hasn’t been a single instance in which the incumbent party has won when only 28% of voters felt positive about the nation’s trajectory.
That’s bad news for Harris.
The challenge is compounded by President Biden’s approval ratings, which sit at a dismal 15 points underwater.
“Joe Biden isn’t on the ballot, but he’s certainly in the minds of Americans,” Enten explained, indicating that Biden’s poor performance is bound to affect any potential Harris campaign. He pointed to past elections as cautionary tales, noting, “Did a Republican succeed George W. Bush? No. Did a Democrat succeed Lyndon Baines Johnson? No.”
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He added, "So the bottom line is for Kamala Harris to win, she'd have to break history, be a Democrat to succeed Joe Biden when Biden's approval rating is way underwater at this point."
That’s bad news for Harris.
In addition to the low approval ratings, there are significant shifts in voter registration trends that signal trouble for Kamala. Republicans have been registering voters in large numbers, gaining ground in crucial swing states like Arizona and Pennsylvania.
“Republicans have been gaining in party registration versus the Democrats in the swing states,” Enten pointed out.
In Arizona, the Republican lead has expanded by five points since 2020. Nevada is also seeing substantial Republican registrations. Other states, including North Carolina and Pennsylvania, have reported notable Republican gains compared to four years ago. This growing Republican electorate, paired with shrinking Democratic numbers, could heavily influence the election outcome.
That’s bad news for Harris.
“And so the bottom line is if ... Donald Trump wins, comes next week, the signs all along will have been obvious," Enten said. "We would look at the right direction being very low, Joe Biden's approval rating being very low, and Republicans really registering numbers. You can't say you weren't warned.”
If Trump wins, the signs were there all along.
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) October 30, 2024
No incumbent party has won another term with so few voters saying the country is on the right track (28%) or when the president's net approval rating is so low (Biden's at -15 pts).
Also, big GOP registration gains in key states. pic.twitter.com/knDQ2HOFtJ
Now get out there and vote!
