Have you noticed that after weeks of momentum for Donald Trump, there’s been a noticeable shift in the narrative to suggest that his momentum has suddenly stalled, that things are suddenly looking up for Kamala Harris, and polls are creeping in showing her winning various battleground states? We go through this every election, and every year we seem to realize there’s an effort to suppress the pro-Trump vote. Is that happening again?
I think so. Let me explain. Earlier this week, CNN’s polling expert Harry Enten suggested that there are a lot of signs pointing to a potential Trump victory.
Enten pointed to several signs that could spell a Trump victory in 2024. First, only 28% of American voters believe the country is on the right track — a dismal figure that has historically doomed the incumbent party. There’s never been a case where the incumbent party has won with right-track numbers this low.
Adding to the bad news for Kamala, Biden’s approval ratings remain underwater. An unpopular incumbent almost always drags down their party’s candidate, and Biden’s low ratings will likely impact her. Compounding this is a surge in GOP voter registrations, with Republicans gaining ground in pivotal swing states like Arizona and Pennsylvania.
“And so the bottom line is if ... Donald Trump wins comes next week, the signs all along will have been obvious," Enten said Wednesday.
Now he’s saying the same thing about Kamala. In his new analysis, Enten did everything he could to put a positive spin on Kamala Harris’s chances in 2024.
On Thursday, he said that if Harris wins, "If Harris wins, the signs were clear as day."
His new analysis leaned heavily on two points to argue that she has an edge: her favorability rating compared to Trump and the supposed momentum for Democrats in special elections. Both points, however, lack substance.
Enten started by pointing out that Kamala “simply put is more popular than Donald Trump.” He noted that “her net favorable rating is higher than Trump. She’s at minus 2, Trump’s at minus 7.” While the numbers may sound good on their own, this isn’t the kind of favorable rating a winning candidate usually flaunts, and Enten has previously noted that Trump’s favorability deficits haven’t translated into decisive defeats. Not only did he beat Hillary in 2016, but Joe Biden’s victory in 2020 hinged on less than 50,000 across three battleground states — despite Biden having significantly higher favorability.
Kamala’s approval ratings are also nothing to write home about. She was the most unpopular vice president in the history of polling before becoming the nominee by palace coup. You can bet that the “approval” she has now, as unimpressive as it may be, is inflated.
Next, Enten switched gears to argue that Democrats are outperforming expectations in special elections, which he claims is a good omen for her. “On average, these Democrats have surpassed Joe Biden’s 2020 margin by 2 points,” Enten said, highlighting this as a sign of enthusiasm for the party. But it’s a weak argument at best.
This is not a special election. It’s a presidential election, which attracts a wider swath of voters and is driven by different issues. Special election turnout is often driven by local issues and has little predictive power for a national election. Enten’s view that these small wins point to an upswing for Biden and Kamala feels like wishful thinking, especially when broader polling shows a sour mood about the economy, the border crisis, and the direction of the country.
Of course, Enten decided to downplay the significance of the factors he had cited just a day prior. He pointed out that similar approval ratings didn’t prevent Democrats from performing well in the 2022 midterms. However, he overlooked a crucial distinction — the stakes are significantly higher in a presidential race, and Trump is on the ballot this year, unlike in 2022.
Enten finished with the idea that abortion will be a more significant issue in 2024, claiming that “with abortion being a much bigger issue this time around than historically speaking, when it was in 2022, Democrats did historically well, perhaps Democrats will surprise a lot of folks and do historically well come next Tuesday.”
The only problem with this theory is that polls have generally shown the economy and immigration as the two most important issues this year, and abortion is not the biggest issue for that many Americans.
Part II: If Harris wins, the signs were clear as day.
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) October 31, 2024
1. She has a higher net favorable rating than Trump, & the more popular candidate almost always wins.
2/3. Post-Roe: When voters vote, Democrats win. See special elections & 2022 midterms, when Dems did historically well. pic.twitter.com/wbrsVdMuep
Enten has often been a relatively fair voice when it comes to assessing the polls, but he’s grasping at straws here. I’m not saying that Trump has this in the bag, but it does sound like after saying that the signs look really good for Trump on Wednesday, Enten flip-flopped a day later. One might assume that he did what he had to do on Thursday to appease the network's left-leaning audience. But his arguments on Wednesday were far more convincing.
Don't be taken in by these efforts to convince you that Kamala is destined to win.
