Once again, New York deserves to be discussed in this election. On Sunday night, Donald Trump held another high-energy rally at Madison Square Garden, underscoring his commitment to the Empire State. Trump has been bullish on his chances in New York, and has said on more than one occasion that his campaign was going to make a play for New York.
There’s no question the political landscape shows signs of New York being more favorable to a Republican than it has been in decades. But is it enough to truly turn the tide in this blue stronghold? Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich suggested that, while Trump’s path to victory in New York remains a long shot, an upset win could indicate a “landslide of a Reagan scale,” as he described it to Maria Bartiromo on Sunday.
What stood out in this rally to Gingrich wasn’t just the crowd’s energy or Trump’s charged delivery, but the coalition of support from once-unlikely Republicans like Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Tulsi Gabbard. Gingrich saw this shift as a “new Republican Party” taking shape. With allies as varied as Kennedy, Gabbard, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, and, of course, Elon Musk, Gingrich noted this rally brought “all of this talent coming together,” underscoring Trump’s ability to attract a cross-section of voters.
“I would say, frankly, I'm happy to swap Robert F. Kennedy for Liz Cheney. I thought … that was that sort of captured where this race is at,” Gingrich said. “And I think, that the fact is that, Trump's gonna win.”
“Yeah. I mean so you think Trump could take New York? Newt, can he win New York?
“Well, I think it's a long shot,” Gingrich conceded. “I mean, it depends on how tired New Yorkers are of crime and, costs and taxes and corruption. He certainly is gonna do better in New York, than he did in his first two campaigns. … And I think he has an outside chance.”
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If Trump were to turn New York red, Gingrich claimed it would mark a decisive national shift, adding that if Trump were to carry the state, it would mean a sweeping victory nationwide. In reality, however, he's more likely to boost down-ballot Republicans than to win the state.
"And that's vital if Speaker Johnson's gonna have a big enough majority to enact the Trump agenda," Gingrich said.
Lord knows that if Trump is elected with the Democrats in control of the House, they'll try to impeach for something silly again.
But, that's not to say Trump doesn't have a lot going for him.
Despite polls showing Kamala Harris with a narrow national lead, Trump’s advantage on key issues is clear. Bartiromo cited an ABC News/Ipsos poll showing Trump leading on the economy, inflation, and immigration—the most important issues of this campaign to the voters. Gingrich argued that polling data could be skewed by lower-than-expected turnout among Democrats, with a notable shift in early voting favoring Republicans by nearly a million ballots in Pennsylvania alone. This, Gingrich suggests, reflects a crisis of enthusiasm on the Democratic side, attributed largely to Harris herself. “Kamala Harris is not believable,” he remarked. "And she doesn't make any sense."
"You can only say 'I was raised as a middle-class child' so often before people think it's a joke, right?" Gingrich continued, arguing that her lack of authenticity might be a driving factor in Democrat voters staying home.
