When the signs point to a likely Donald Trump victory, I'm all for writing about it and sharing it with you all. It still pains me to remember the 2008 campaign when the GOP nominated John McCain, and the energy and enthusiasm behind Obama made it feel like we were just going through the motions, awaiting the inevitable defeat. While I’m naturally energized about 2024, we still have to face the reality that Trump could lose—it’s a possibility we can’t ignore. If that happens, what’s our silver lining?
Make no mistake about it, I'm hopeful that we can win the White House, maintain control of the House, and flip the Senate. That said, the GOP's prospects for keeping the House aren't as good as they are for flipping the Senate. The GOP has a very advantageous map in 2024, with more Democratic incumbents defending their seats than Republicans. In fact, right now, all signs point to the GOP winning a small majority in the Senate, even if Trump loses.
And, that, my friends, is your silver lining.
Barack Obama, Donald Trump, and Joe Biden all won their elections with a unified government, which allowed them to essentially steamroll their agendas through Congress. Each lost their unified governments in their first midterms, which sent their agendas to a grinding halt, and, in the case of Donald Trump, put Democrats in a position to follow through on their longstanding intention to impeach him for something, no matter how absurd.
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If, God forbid, Kamala Harris wins the election, the last thing we'd want is for her to have a unified government. The last time the Democrats had control of the House, Senate, and the White House was when Joe Biden took office, and Democrats wasted no time trying to consolidate their power. They’ve long relied on the courts to advance their agenda, and once Biden took office, they revived efforts to pack the Supreme Court. While Biden set up a commission that ultimately dismissed the idea, his administration remains focused on “reforming” the judiciary—something Harris would likely continue.
In the Senate, Democrats would once again attempt to eliminate the filibuster. Harris herself has expressed willingness to do so to push through extreme measures like the Green New Deal. Additionally, Democrats could reignite their efforts to make D.C. and Puerto Rico states, which would give them permanent electoral advantages by adding more Democratic senators and representatives.
Even more concerning is that Democrats would once again attempt to federalize elections through bills that would undermine voter integrity, impose universal mail-in voting, and require automatic voter registration. If they win a unified government, all of this could happen.
The good news is that right now, things are looking pretty good for the GOP when it comes to flipping the Senate. We're going to flip Sen. Joe Manchin's seat red, and finally oust Sen. John Tester in Montana. Other Democrat-held seats may flip, too, but we're likely looking at at least a 52-seat majority in the Senate. This not only means Kamala's radical legislative agenda to entrench the Democrats into power wouldn't succeed, but her ability to fill vacancies in the judiciary with radical left-wing judges is also curtailed. Other potential flips in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Wisconsin would be icing on the cake.
We need to win the presidency, no doubt, because Kamala will certainly try to impose much of her agenda via executive action, but if we don't win, having the Senate in Republican hands will limit her ability to destroy this country.
