I’ve been saying for a while now that Republicans are in a strong position heading into the 2026 midterms. Democrats are bleeding support among key constituencies, their fundraising is collapsing, and every sign points to a GOP that could not only defend its House and Senate majorities, but expand them. Yet none of this is guaranteed—complacency could still undo the party. Here’s the reality.
But first, a little context. CNN’s Harry Enten recently sounded the alarm for Democrats: Republicans are registering new voters at a pace their rivals simply can’t match. In swing states such as Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, the numbers are staggering. Enten admits these GOP gains are the strongest he’s seen since voter registration data became widely available in 2005—and in some places, the surge stretches back even further.
This isn’t just a warning—it’s a flashing red siren. Republicans are adding voters while Democrats are hemorrhaging them, and no amount of media spin can hide that fact.
Layer on top of that the Democrats’ radical agenda—coddling criminals, pushing open borders, and indoctrinating kids with gender ideology—and it’s no wonder their bottom is falling out.
It should be a moment for Republicans to celebrate.
But pollster Matt Towery offers a sharp warning: despite Democrats’ disasters, there are troubling signs for the GOP, too. The party can’t take victory for granted—it must fight, mobilize, and execute, or all these advantages could slip away.
For one thing, the RealClearPolitics generic ballot currently gives Democrats a slight edge, a reminder that GOP leadership must act with urgency, mobilize the base, and get creative if they want to turn opportunity into victory.
Make no mistake, Democrats have plenty stacked against them. The party has veered hard left—embracing criminals, championing illegal immigration, pushing radical gender ideology on kids, and more. But none of this guarantees Republicans a win in the midterms. Assuming victory without doing the work would be a dangerous mistake.
Towery is blunt: midterms are a whole different beast.
“But I want to give one quick warning, though, to all Republicans, and that is I’m a pollster. I polled Donald Trump very well. Midterms are not as easy. One of the things we’re seeing right now from the RealClearPolitics average, there’s not one poll of the public that says the Republicans are leading in that generic congressional ballot test,” he said. “Now, I think it has to do with the way they poll. I don’t think it’s really a reality. But the Republicans need to be ready for the midterms. It’s about motivating people to turn out to vote. That’s going to take some creative things, like Donald Trump talking about having a pre-midterm convention, which is brilliant.”
The left, obsessed with its own failed formulas, keeps missing the issues that actually drive working families, churchgoers, and taxpayers to the polls. Democrats ignore crime, sneer at faith, and double down on a radical agenda voters have already rejected. Meanwhile, the GOP has a golden opportunity to rally the base and capitalize on growing voter registration—but only if it fights for every vote instead of assuming a guaranteed victory.
The raw truth: voters won't hand the 2026 midterms to Republicans on a silver platter. The party has to campaign as if it were behind, energize its supporters, push bold ideas, and refuse to fall into the trap of playing it safe.
