It’s now October during an election year, and rumors have been swirling for months about a potential October Surprise that could completely upend the 2024 election. One theory that has gained the most attention is that President Joe Biden will resign, paving the way for Kamala Harris to ascend to the presidency via succession. On its face, this might seem like a dream scenario for Democrats—Kamala becomes the first female president, thus making history while reinvigorating the campaign in the final weeks. But for Kamala, this might be the last thing she wants.
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With President Biden appearing increasingly frail in recent months, whispers of his possible resignation have only grown louder. Let’s face it, he only looks marginally better than Jimmy Carter these days, and since his dropping out of the election, his seemingly limited role in the actual running of the country has been under scrutiny.
In many ways, an October Surprise where Biden steps down and Harris steps up feels almost inevitable. And Democrats love the idea of Donald Trump’s 45-47 merchandise being obsolete.
But this widely expected scenario might not be the strategic boon Harris needs. In fact, it could turn out to be a nightmare.
With the border crisis and a struggling economy dominating the headlines, Kamala Harris certainly wouldn’t want to inherit much of the Biden-Harris record as her own. Her campaign slogan, “A New Way Forward,” underscores her efforts to position herself as the “change” candidate.
If Kamala were to suddenly step into the presidency, she would face a daunting challenge: She’d have to leave the campaign trail and take charge of the federal government while fully embracing the legacy of the Biden-Harris administration. Inheriting the administration, and losing the ability to divorce herself from its record, is not what she needs. Why? Because it would undermine her message of being a transformational candidate. If voters see her as more of the same, she loses. And there wouldn't be enough for her to do anything to turn the page on the Biden-Harris record.
Trump may lose his 45-47 branding, but her entire campaign message would go up in smoke.
However, there’s a significant flaw in the October Surprise theory: Joe Biden is unlikely to resign. Stepping down before the election would be a catastrophic decision, both politically and personally. Such a move would not only validate the GOP’s ongoing criticisms of his age and health but also provide them with a potent talking point just weeks before voters head to the polls. This scenario would cast doubt not only on Biden’s fitness for office but also on Kamala Harris’s role in covering up his lack of fitness for office for nearly four years.
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Whether this move would catapult Kamala to victory or not is hard to say, but if the belief is that it would help her, well, I don't think Joe Biden will willingly do that. I've pointed out before that Joe Biden likely doesn't want her to win, and wants his legacy to be that of the only Democrat who could beat Donald Trump. So he won't resign to help her win. Biden's legacy in Democrat circles has more to gain from her losing than her winning.
