As we approach the election, the race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris is shaping up to be one of the closest contests in modern American history. Kamala is currently up about two points nationally, and Trump has small leads in three battleground states, Kamala has small leads in three, and Pennsylvania is tied. To say this election is going to be close is an understatement. But Democrats may be at a disadvantage, and they know it.
CNN’s Harry Enten provided insight into the current polling landscape, emphasizing that there has been “no movement” in the race. The latest numbers show Harris leading Trump by three points, just as she did a month ago. According to Enten, “This race hasn’t moved. It has been continuously very, very tight.”
He pointed out a historical trend: since 1964, there has never been a presidential race in which a candidate has failed to lead by five or more points at least three weeks before the election. Yet this year is different with “zero days” where either candidate has held such a lead.
When discussing battleground states, Enten highlighted the importance of these areas in determining the election outcome. The margins in key states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin are razor-thin, with Harris holding a slim one-point lead in Pennsylvania, while Trump is up by one in North Carolina, based on their polling. He stated, “Simply put, this race remains incredibly tight.” The potential electoral map is closely contested as well, with Harris projected to secure 276 electoral votes if polling trends hold, while Trump would trail with 262.
However, Enten raised crucial questions about the reliability of polling. “What happens if the polls are slightly off?” he asked.
As we know, in 2020 and 2016, polls underestimated Trump’s support. Back in 2016, pollsters put Hillary Clinton’s chances of winning the election at at least 75% and as much as 95%. In 2020, Joe Biden had a comfortable lead in the polls and always led in the RealClearPolitics average. So the big question is what happens if there is a similar polling error across the key battleground states as there was in 2020.
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“Well, if that happens again," Enten began, "Donald Trump carries all of these Great Lake battleground states. He carries Nevada as well. Of course, he carries Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. And he gets to, get this, 312 electoral votes. So the bottom line is if we have an error like we did four years ago, Donald Trump is going to win this election. Kamala Harris is going to lose."
I have no doubt that Democrats have this concern right now. Of course, I've said before that we shouldn't count on the polls being wrong again or that we should consider the possibility they're wrong like they were in 2022 when a red wave was predicted which didn't pan out.
Enten pointed out that if the polls are wrong the way they were in 2022, Harris would be the beneficiary. “We put all these Great Lake battleground states right back in Kamala Harris’ column,” he explained, emphasizing that she could still secure wins in the southeast, particularly in Georgia and North Carolina.
I would argue the polls are more likely to be wrong closer to how they were wrong in 2020 and 2016 than in 2022 because the dynamics of a presidential race are different, and the problem with the polls in those years was pollsters had a hard time gauging Trump's support, while 2022 likely underestimated the impact of Dobbs v. Jackson.
Trump is back on the ballot in 2024, and polls continue to show that abortion isn't a top issue of this campaign. I would argue that there's a better chance that the polls are underestimating Trump's support, not Kamala's.
We should be cautious about assuming any polling errors at all. Democrats will likely operate under the assumption that polls underestimate Trump’s support and will adjust their strategies accordingly. In our case, we must consider the possibility that the polls may underestimate Kamala’s support as well, and we need to fight like hell to win this election.
