There’s no denying that the hardest hit areas by Hurricane Helene in Georgia and North Carolina are Republican-leaning rural areas. Unfortunately, the Biden-Harris administration appears to be dragging its feet with the federal response in those areas, raising legitimate concerns that it could tip the election in those battleground states to Kamala Harris. Hopefully, that won’t be the case.
On her show Friday, Fox News’s Laura Ingraham discussed a critical issue brewing as North Carolina and Georgia grapple with the aftermath of one of the most devastating hurricanes in U.S. history. She pushed back against claims that she was politicizing the natural disaster, emphasizing that her concerns were rooted in what she was hearing from people on the ground, many of whom aren’t Trump supporters. Ingraham made it clear that this isn’t about politics—it’s about ensuring votes are counted.
Ingraham stressed the importance of ensuring that votes are counted, especially considering the potential impact of the hurricane on Republican voters. “Those votes, those 40,000 votes, there has to be court action to ensure that those people—who are mostly Republican voters—get their votes counted,” she insisted.
Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy joined the discussion, emphasizing the stakes involved in this election. He reminded viewers that “20,000 votes determine who won Wisconsin,” highlighting the razor-thin margins that can dictate election outcomes. He warned, “If President Trump doesn’t win North Carolina, he can’t win the presidency.”
Ingraham echoed his sentiments, affirming, “Right,” underscoring their shared concern. McCarthy further questioned the state of the voting process in the wake of the hurricane: “Why aren’t we ensuring that these votes are counted? Is the ballot still there? Do they make sure they’re able to mail them in?”
Both Ingraham and McCarthy made it clear that the situation revolves around three critical states: Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina. McCarthy noted the tragic circumstances in these areas, asserting, “We need to make sure that they have the ability to vote, that those votes are counted, and those votes are protected.”
He's got a point. If North Carolina and Georgia both go to Trump, he only has to win Pennsylvania, or any one of the three Rust Belt battleground states, to win the election.
Now, here’s the thing, McCarthy wasn’t completely right. Trump can win the presidency without North Carolina; it’s just a narrower path to 270 Electoral College votes. Hopefully, the affected areas will get the aid they need to recover, but let’s look at Trump’s path to 270 Electoral College votes, assuming that Helene devastation takes North Carolina out of Trump’s column.
In the scenario below, I assume, based on recent polling, that Trump is safe in Arizona and Georgia, which leaves Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin as tossups.
In this scenario, Trump has to win any two Rust Belt states (Pa., Mich., or Wisc.) or win both Pennsylvania and just one of any of the remaining toss-up states.
But, hypothetically speaking, what if the devastation in Georgia is also bad enough in red-leaning areas that Trump can’t win that state either? Well, the path narrows a bit more but is doable.
In this scenario, Trump must either sweep the Rust Belt, or win Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Michigan to pass 270 Electoral College votes.
So, McCarthy is clearly wrong that Trump can't win without North Carolina. That said, I'm not going to lie; if Hurricane Helene tips North Carolina and Georgia, or even just North Carolina, Trump has to win more toss-up states to secure victory, and while he can certainly do it, such a scenario makes me really nervous.
