I don’t mean to get ahead of myself, but as the 2024 presidential election enters its final stretch, it looks like momentum is shifting toward Donald Trump. It may be hard to see it based on national polls or some of the more popular election projections—and we certainly shouldn’t take the election for granted—but hear me out.
Of course, we all knew that Kamala Harris would get a bounce in the polls after she took Joe Biden’s place on the top of the Democratic ticket, but, as the weeks passed, it was clear that the bounce she got wasn’t big enough for Democrats to be confident in the outcome of the election.
I recently noted that it looks like we’re shaping up to have an election that will be determined by the three blue wall states: Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Right now, the way things are looking based on the most recent polls, Trump would only have to win one of these states to win the election, while Kamala Harris has to win all three.
And, things look pretty good for Trump in Pennsylvania, so that’s a reason to feel a lot of hope that this election will turn out right. But, we’re also seeing numbers from traditionally blue states like Nevada, Minnesota and New Mexico.
In Nevada, a new Rasmussen Reports poll shows Trump edging ahead of Harris with 49% of the vote compared to Harris’s 48%. A Noble Predictive Insights poll similarly found the state tied. This is significant, given that Nevada hasn't voted Republican since 2004.
Meanwhile, in Minnesota, a state that hasn't voted Republican in a presidential race since 1972, Kamala has an embarrassing three-point lead. There was no reason to believe that Minnesota was still in play when Kamala selected Tim Walz as her running mate, but it sure looks like it is. While I wouldn't bank on Trump winning Minnesota, the tight race there suggests that Trump’s position in the battleground states in the Great Lakes region is likely stronger than many realize.
We've talked before about how even New York state is tighter than it should be. While I wouldn't recommend Trump spending time or money there, another traditionally blue state is looking closer, and supports the idea that the electorate in 2024 has shifted remarkably in Trump's direction. That state is New Mexico, where Harris leads Trump by six points, 50 to 44 percent. That's not a small lead, but a ridiculously small margin for a state that last voted Republican in 2004. Biden won the state by 11 points in 2020.
🇺🇲 2024 GE: @Rasmussen_Poll for @AmericanThinker
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 27, 2024
NEVADA
🟥 Trump: 49%
🟦 Harris: 48%
NV Senate
🟦 Rosen (inc): 50%
🟥 Brown: 40%
——
MINNESOTA
🟦 Harris: 49%
🟥 Trump: 46%
——
NEW MEXICO
🟦 Harris: 50%
🟥 Trump: 44%
September 19-22 | 2,439 LV | ±3%https://t.co/4YUCox4L5G
Trump may not win Minnesota or New Mexico, but when you consider the fact that more purple-ish states like Virginia have shown signs of being close, it all bodes well for Donald Trump.
So, what’s behind Trump’s surge in these critical states? Is Harris struggling to keep her base energized as she has put herself out there with more interviews? Maybe Trump's appeal to working-class voters and his consistent messaging on economic issues is just resonating with voters more. I'm sure those are part of it, but personally, I suspect that her bounce in the polls was largely just noise, and her topping the ticket hasn't actually changed many voters' minds. Now we have a race that is looking a lot like where the race was back in May and early June.
