Yes, Joe Biden tanked his presidential campaign during his debate with Donald Trump. But truthfully, his chances of victory didn’t look so great before the debate. His approval ratings had been underwater since his botched withdrawal from Afghanistan, and on top of that, historic inflation soured the nation on four more years of Biden-Harris.
Contrary to what some public pollsters may suggest, Kamala Harris has not expanded her electoral map or created additional paths to secure 270 electoral votes. We’re basically in the same place we were back in May.
In May, the polls showed Trump ahead in Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, and Georgia. This meant Trump had to win just one of the three "blue wall" states to win the election. At the time, Trump had a lead, albeit a small one, in Pennsylvania, which meant that he was favored to win the election.
Given Trump's leads in NV, AZ, and GA, Biden must win all three "blue wall" states to win the presidency. pic.twitter.com/6hEbw8NMHK
— Matt Margolis (@mattmargolis) May 8, 2024
Now that Biden has dropped out and Harris is the Democrats’ nominee, the dynamics of the race have changed, but the fundamentals have not. People are still sour on the economy and are concerned with illegal immigration. Harris has a lead in the RealClearPolitics average, but the averages in the battleground states tells a much different story.
After Kamala took over the top of the Democratic Party ticket, the race tightened all over, even in the battleground states, and Democrats appeared to show signs of competitiveness in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. Today, the polls are showing Trump pulling away, taking these states out of Kamala's reach.
Trump currently holds an average lead of 1.2 points in North Carolina, compared to Biden's 0.8-point lead at the same time during the 2020 election. In Georgia, Trump’s average lead has reached 1.5 points, slightly surpassing his numbers from the previous campaign.
Arizona shows an even more promising picture for Trump, with an average lead of 2.0 points, particularly noteworthy since Biden had a 3.4-point advantage at this stage in 2020. Nevada, however, has Harris up 1.2 points.
With recent polls swinging to Trump in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, that gives us an interesting scenario.
With polls breaking to Trump in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, here's where the race stands right now. pic.twitter.com/0MyOQuSBmF
— Matt Margolis (@mattmargolis) September 27, 2024
While the above scenario has Nevada as a toss-up, that doesn't change the fact that Trump only has to win one of the "blue wall" states to win the election. Harris, however, has to win all three. This is the same exact situation that Biden was in more than a month before he bombed the debate with Trump.
“If we win Pennsylvania, we win the whole thing,” Trump said a campaign rally in the state earlier this week. “It’s very simple.”
He's right. That's what this race was several months ago, and that's what it is shaping up to be today.
Look at how close this is: 5 of the last 7 polls in Pennsylvania have the race exactly tied. https://t.co/A8ga2HYbH9 pic.twitter.com/EaQhKSkem8
— Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) September 26, 2024
Keep in mind, Trump is polling much better in 2024 than he was in 2020 in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, yet he only has to win one of them to become the 47th president.
