If you don’t know what to make of the polls lately, you’re not alone. They are all over the place. I’m sure some make you gasp, some make you happy, and others leave you scratching your head. Of course, presidential elections tend to be somewhat predictable: whoever wins independents will win the election. So who’s doing better with independents?
A new Gallup survey actually tells us a lot about where the candidates stand with the electorate in terms of favorability.
The poll, which covers a period before and after recent debates, shows that they’re actually pretty much equal. According to Gallup, Donald Trump’s favorability stands as 46%, and his unfavorability is 53%. This sounds bad, but it’s marginally better than Kamala Harris’s ratings, which are 44% favorable, and 54% unfavorable.
This isn’t good news for Harris, because Trump is marginally ahead. But it’s actually worse than you think. While Kamala’s favorability numbers have been trending negative since August, Trump have been trending positive. Trump saw a +5 shift in favorablity, while Kamala saw a -3 shift.
Things are even worse for Kamala. The above numbers are among overall adults — not independents. Her numbers with independents are actually so much worse.
Harris’s net favorability is a devastating -25 points, with 60% of independents viewing her unfavorably, and just 35% having a favorable opinion. Of course, Trump is also underwater with independents, with his net favorability among independents standing at -9 points, but boy, would Harris kill to be -9 points with independents than -25 points.
Ouch.
This widening gap is a major concern for her campaign. The question is why is this happening and what can they do about it? She’s experiencing a disconnect with the voters who will be pivotal in the general election.
Part of Harris's struggle with independents is likely due to recent public appearances and responses. Rather than answering questions or offering details, she’s regurgitating the same script over and over again. When someone asks her a question about the economy, she’ll respond with the canned line about she “grew up a middle class kid” and launch into some meaningless word salad.
While I don't understand how anyone could be undecided at this point, if you haven't made up your mind yet, Kamala's word salads and memorized lines that offer no plans or details just aren't going to cut it.
For instance, during her recent appearance with a panel from the National Association of Black Journalists, Kamala's avoidance of answering questions was strikingly obvious.
"The audience of about 150, including 100 college students, began to signal discomfort when Harris avoided answering a question about whether she would issue an executive order to create a commission to study reparations," reported NBC News. "Ultimately, she said it would come down to Congress, an answer that seemed to deflate some of the attendees."
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"Some members of the audience also signaled displeasure when she gave an indirect answer about whether she would continue the Biden administration’s approach to the Israel-Hamas war," the report continued.
Several focus groups that watched the Harris-Trump debate similarly took issue with her refusal to answer questions. Kamala is trying desperately to pivot to the center without alienating the radical left. To do this, she's basically sticking to platitudes and avoiding details that she doesn't want to be honest about.
The problem is that independent voters see right through it.
