Has the presidential race really changed all that much since Kamala Harris replaced Joe Biden on the top of the Democratic ticket? It sure seemed like it at first. Democrats were suddenly excited to no longer have to be stuck with voting for a walking corpse. However, as Kamala’s honeymoon period is ending, it looks like the race hasn’t changed much, and there’s a reason why.
Over the past week or so, there has been a trickle of national polls showing Trump up a little, the race tied, and Kamala ahead a smidge. That’s pretty much what we were getting before Biden bombed in his debate with Trump.
Meanwhile, Trump has a solid advantage in Nate Silver’s election model and the political betting markets, as polls show Kamala’s lead, which was never substantially high in the first place, receding.
How is this possible? What about vibes and joy and all of that crap?
How is it that we still essentially have a race that isn’t markedly different from the way it was when Biden was still on top of the ticket?
The answer is simple. The fundamentals driving voters haven’t changed — and those fundamentals still favor Trump.
While Harris has managed to energize a narrow segment of the Democratic base, particularly when it comes to abortion, most voters remain far more concerned with economic issues. A new poll from KFF reveals that while Harris polls better against Trump on the issue of abortion than Biden did, abortion is still not a top priority for most voters. The poll shows that 40% of voters consider the economy and inflation the most important factors influencing their vote this fall, with “threats to democracy” coming in as the next most significant issue.
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“It’s important to realize, if you think about things that are motivating people to vote, and what’s top of mind, abortion has really never jumped up to a top issue,” Ashley Kirzinger, director of survey methodology for KFF told The Hill. “Voters are complex, and there isn’t one issue that’s going to motivate all voters … but that doesn’t mean that voters don’t think that abortion is on the ballot when comparing these two candidates.”
For sure, the enthusiasm Harris has generated among Democratic women of childbearing age is undeniable, but the problem with the narrative that abortion will drive liberal women out in unprecedented numbers in November is that only about one in five in this cohort named abortion as their top voting issue.
This is why we’re seeing Trump rise in the polls again. Kamala’s honeymoon period is over, and people realize that on the issues that matter, Trump is the better choice. James Carville’s axiom “it’s the economy, stupid,” is just as relevant today as it was thirty years ago, and poll after poll after poll shows that voters trust Trump more on economic issues. Despite the left’s attempts to make abortion the key issue of this election, it just isn't working.
Sure, Kamala’s focus on abortion may energize certain voters, the overall fundamentals driving voter behavior haven’t shifted just because Biden was swapped out. The usual pocketbook issues are still the top concerns, which means that Trump is likely to benefit from that focus. The left may push a new face, but they haven't altered the underlying political dynamics.
There’s no denying that Kamala’s entry into the race changes some surface-level dynamics, but the election remains one where Trump’s policies and messaging on the economy and inflation are likely to resonate most with the voters who matter in November.
