On Tuesday we will have the first (and likely only) debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris — assuming she shows up. Her campaign futilely fought long and hard to change the rules and is reportedly flustered about the lack of open microphones. But the political betting markets think that Kamala is going to win the debate. Could she pull it off?
Perhaps the political betting markets aren't the best judge. Joe Biden had between a 72% and 80% chance of winning the June debate according to Polymarket, and we all know what happened there.
I have to admit that I was a bit nervous about the debate between Trump and Biden. Maybe a drugged Biden would do pretty well, and maybe an overconfident Trump would slip up. However, I could tell the second Biden started walking on stage that it was going to be a good night for Trump, and I knew it was over within about five seconds of Biden speaking.
According to a report from Politico, some Republicans are worried that Trump could blow the debate by focusing too much on personal attacks and not on criticizing her policies. The report notes that Trump "continues to signal that he’s not interested in backing down from personal attacks."
I have to admit that it concerns me, too. I wasn't particularly impressed with how he handled the Fox News town hall or his recent speech before the Fraternal Order of Police because he goes on long tangents rather than getting to the point. Of course, there are other concerns as well.
“I assume she’ll come in very, very aggressive, and she will try to bait him, getting very angry, and she’ll be personal and try to demean him,” former House Speaker Newt Gingrich told Politico. “I think, I hope, what he’ll do is be a guy who’s been a real president — while she has been kind of a semi-vice president — and a guy who knows all the world leaders, and a guy who has been through an enormous amount, and just be calm and steady and stick to the real differences.”
Republican strategists are apparently concerned about Trump's ability to stay disciplined during a debate with Harris, fearing that he may resort to personal attacks if he feels cornered. Tricia McLaughlin, a former adviser to Vivek Ramaswamy's campaign, expressed doubts, noting that Trump could lash out if he feels that Harris and ABC moderators David Muir and Linsey Davis are ganging up on him.
Related: Kamala's Panicking About The Debate Rules, And It's Her Own Fault
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) warned that trading insults benefits Kamala, yet Trump has defended his right to personal attacks, particularly after the criticism he had faced for questioning Harris's racial identity. Trump may have a point.
But much of the concern about Trump's upcoming performance comes from the optics of his style while debating a woman. As much as I don't think Trump should have to treat her differently, there's no doubt that we'll be treated to all kinds of stories about how his "behavior" will "backfire with women voters."
That will happen regardless of how Trump performs in the debate. The real question is whether Trump can successfully conduct himself.
The article also suggests that Trump's debate prep is minimal.
A Trump campaign official, granted anonymity to speak freely, said the former president, as he did before the June debate, is working with senior staff and allies to determine how to best portray a contrast with Harris during the debate. But the official suggested preparations are minimal. Trump is “simply reviewing policy specifics” that he believes voters will most care about, the official said, in order to contrast his time in office to “Kamala Harris’ four years as co-pilot.”
In light of what happened at the last debate, many are acting like this upcoming debate will be equally consequential. I doubt that. But I think the real pressure will be less on Trump and more on Harris. Still, I hope that Trump is listening to his advisors.
