Kamala Harris's honeymoon bounce in the polls has Democrats excited for the first time in a long time in this election. Even with that surge of enthusiasm, she's still only managing to take a small lead within the margin of error in the RealClearPolitics average. Nevertheless, her position appears to be much stronger than Joe Biden's but, CNN's Harry Enten is warning them that Harris doesn't have the election in the bag — not by a long shot.
To explain why, he looked at battleground state polling in the previous two election cycles to see how far off they were from the results.
“We put out those poll numbers yesterday, you know, New York Times-Siena College, we covered them. I showed you the Ipsos polling, all of which showed Kamala Harris with clear momentum and enthusiasm potentially on her side. But I just want to take a step back and sort of point out we’ve kind of been here before,” he began.
"So August 13, how far were the polls off in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin?" he continued. "And this is in 2016 and 2020. [...] Take a look here in 2016, the average poll in those states that I mentioned — those Great Lakes battleground states — Trump was underestimated by 9 points on average at this point in 2016. How about 2020? It wasn't a one-off. Look at this. He was underestimated by 5 points on average. And, of course, Kamala Harris' advantage in those New York Times Siena College polls was 4 points in each of these key battleground states, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin."
As such, Enten told Harris supporters they shouldn't be celebrating right now. "The bottom line is this, if you have any idea, if you're a Kamala Harris fan and you wanna rip open the champagne bottle, pop that cork, do not do it. Donald Trump is very much in this race. If we have a polling shift like we've seen in prior years from now until the final result, Donald Trump would actually win."
Recommended: LOL! Not Even KJP Can Name Any of Kamala's Policy Achievements
But what about the surge in Democratic enthusiasm? According to Enten, voter enthusiasm doesn't always translate into actual voter turnout. He compared the certainty of voters turning out in key swing states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Back in May, 62% of Joe Biden's supporters said they were almost certain to vote, but that number has slightly decreased to 61%.
In contrast, Donald Trump's supporters have seen a slight increase in certainty, going from 58% in May to 60% now. Despite these small shifts, Enten suggested that the overall situation remains largely unchanged, emphasizing that enthusiasm doesn't necessarily equate to guaranteed voter turnout.
"There may be more enthusiasm for Kamala Harris, but the fact is we're not seeing that necessarily translate in the almost certain vote," he said, before saying that "Donald Trump is more popular today than he was on August 13 in either 2020 or 2016."
3 caution points for Democrats...
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) August 13, 2024
1. Trump wins if the difference between the polls at this point & the result matches what we saw in 2016 or 2020.
2. Trump's more popular now than at this pt in 2016 or 2020.
3. Dems don't say they're more likely to vote now than in May pic.twitter.com/E0zfPCyKS9
Remember, experts widely agree that Harris is in the middle of a honeymoon bounce and that it will ultimately subside. If this is the best that she can do, then she has some real problems.
Join the conversation as a VIP Member