Many people were shocked on Tuesday morning when Kamala Harris announced that she had selected Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate. For two weeks, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro had been seen as the runaway favorite. So why did Kamala pick Walz? When you think about it, it actually makes sense.
The Democratic party is still divided
For weeks, the message has been that Kamala Harris would pick someone from a battleground state, and the two names that quickly rose to the top of the shortlist were Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) and Gov. Josh Shapiro (D-Pa.), both of whom are Democrats who have managed to win statewide races in states that helped determine the outcome of the last election. However, both men received pushback from the progressive wing of the party for the various moderate positions they've taken. Picking Kelly or Shapiro may have helped her appeal to moderates and independents, but in picking Walz, a leftist from a blue state, Harris is effectively admitting that she needs to keep her own party united, and that's a bigger priority than appealing to the middle.
Democrat antisemitism made picking Shapiro impossible
There's no reason to deny this obvious fact. Shapiro spent the past couple of weeks as the most likely pick, but the pushback was significant. His Jewish faith and pro-Israel positions were huge liabilities that would have incensed the pro-Palestinian wing of the party. Would he have helped Kamala carry Pennsylvania? Probably. Would it alienate the pro-Palestinian voters in Michigan and make it impossible for her to win that state? Highly likely.
Related: Democrat Civil War Watch: Kamala's VP Search Divides Party
World events require a more experienced candidate
Let's face it, Josh Shapiro, despite being a rising star in the Democratic Party, is green. He's barely been tested on a national stage, let alone on an international stage. We have another world war brewing, and Kamala Harris's foreign policy credentials, are, to put it kindly, lacking. Walz is a 12-year veteran of the House of Representatives as well as a two-term governor, and he adds much-needed experience to the Harris ticket that Shapiro simply doesn't have. Walz brings an element of "elder statesman" to the ticket the same way Joe Biden did for Barack Obama.
Lack of confidence about winning
Harris's veepstakes was plagued with problems from the beginning. Top contenders Shapiro and Kelly were the targets of some damaging leaks, and two contenders, Govs. Gretchen Whitmer (D-Mich.) and Roy Cooper (D-N.C.) took themselves out of consideration, which was very telling. Whitmer is likely looking at a presidential run of her own in the future, and probably didn't want to be attached to the Kamala ticket in the event the latter loses in November. Cooper's explanation for dropping out was even more telling. Cooper, term-limited from running for governor again, seemed like an ideal running mate for Kamala Harris, but he took himself out of consideration because he wants to run for the U.S. Senate in 2026. Who skips out on the chance to be vice president to run for the U.S. Senate? Someone who doesn't think Kamala Harris can win.
The recession factor
I highly suspect the looming recession was also a factor in this race. I don't think that anyone wanted to be Kamala Harris's running mate more than Josh Shapiro. But in light of the looming recession, did something change?
As Democratic strategist Douglas Schoen told Fox News's Neil Cavuto on Thursday, a recession is going to devastate the Democratic ticket in November.
"As we sit here today, Donald Trump and the Republicans lead Kamala Harris, Joe Biden, and the Democrats on handling the economy by 20 points, and Joe Biden's ratings on handling inflation are below 35%," he said. "So if we get a recession — even the beginning of a recession — that will hurt Kamala Harris and help Donald Trump.”
Why would Shapiro want to jump on the Kamala train if a recession is going to doom the ticket? He's a first-term governor in a swing state with a reputation for being a moderate. Being on the national ticket with Kamala would destroy that image and make it harder for him to win reelection. Gov. Walz represents a blue state, isn't term-limited from seeking office again, and isn't likely to be hurt politically in Minnesota by being on the ticket.
It wouldn't surprise me if Shapiro soured on being on the ticket because of the looming recession.
