The July jobs report fueled fears that we are at the start of a recession after the most reliable indicator in history, the Sahm Recession Indicator, was triggered. The stock market took a significant hit, and many experts are now saying that a recession could be a black swan event that could impact the presidential election. Of course, the question is how.
On Thursday, Neil Cavuto had Democratic strategist Douglas Schoen on his Fox News show to discuss that very question. After playing a montage of coverage of the 2008 economic collapse, and pointing out that it made it virtually impossible for John McCain to defeat Barack Obama. McCain had briefly taken the lead in the RealClearPolitics average before the collapse of Lehman Brothers triggered the economic collapse.
“If we had something like that again, couldn't it put the same pressure on the Democratic incumbents in control of the White House?” Cavuto asked Schoen.
“Absolutely,” Schoen said. “Already, Neil, as we sit here today, Donald Trump and the Republicans lead Kamala Harris, Joe Biden, and the Democrats on handling the economy by 20 points, and Joe Biden's ratings on handling inflation are below 35%. So if we get a recession—even the beginning of a recession—that will hurt Kamala Harris, and help Donald Trump.”
Schoen added that the coming recession doesn’t even have to be nearly as bad as the 2008 economic collapse “to be enough political benefit to put Donald Trump over the top in a very close election.”
In fact, it may not even take a full blown recession. Cavuto pointed out that in 1992, when Bill Clinton was running against George H.W. Bush, “the economy was turning around and coming out of that recession in the fall of that year, but it was deemed too little, too late for average Americans and voters to appreciate it,” and Bush ended up losing.
Related: Welcome to the Harris-Biden Recession
“The only reason why I mentioned that is perception does become reality," Cavuto continued. “And for the markets to punctuate the perception that a lot of average folks have had, that could be very dangerous.”
Schoen agreed.
“In this environment, we're starting with a public mood that is hostile to the incumbent party and the incumbent president. If we get the kind of turbulence we saw yesterday on a sustained basis, I think even though a recession is very, very different than inflation—the opposite—the two together will suggest instability.”
“If Donald Trump moves away from the personal attacks and focuses on the issues like the southern border and particularly the economy, he can advantage his campaign.”
Kamala Harris' campaign certainly knows that a recession will hurt her campaign and is trying to get the public to blame Trump for it.
"Donald Trump failed Americans as president, costing our economy millions of jobs, and bringing us to the brink of recession," Kamala's campaign said in a statement after the jobs report came out. "Now, he’s promising even more damage with a Project 2025 agenda that will decimate the middle class and increase taxes on working families, while ripping away health care, raising prescription drug costs, and cutting Social Security and Medicare — all while making his billionaire donors richer."
