When Joe Biden officially bowed out of the 2024 presidential race and Kamala Harris effectively inherited the Democratic Party nomination (for now), the race changed. The party forced Biden out because of the inevitability that Trump would prevail in the election. With a new race on our hands, the obvious question is: What’s going to happen next in the polls? Is Trump still headed for victory?
Probably. But we need to first discuss what to expect in the polls in the coming weeks because things are going to change.
For one thing, Biden’s decision to drop out and endorse Harris certainly sucked the energy out of any bounce Trump would have received from the Republican National Convention, although he had already been receiving a bounce in the aftermath of the debate at the end of June. Before his disastrous debate performance in Atlanta, Biden's numbers were teetering, but they hadn't yet plunged to unrecoverable depths.
The mainstream media has accepted the task of helping the Democrats through this tumultuous time and is doing everything it can to boost Harris’s image. They’re praising her and her record and even trying to rewrite history by claiming that she was never Biden’s border czar.
Related: The Enthusiasm for Kamala Harris Isn't Real
Before the debate debacle, Biden's polling showed a mixed bag — he was neck-and-neck with Trump in some national surveys while trailing in others. In the battlegrounds, Trump had a clear edge, although some states were closer than others. The debate, however, was a turning point, exposing vulnerabilities and amplifying doubts about his viability.
Now, with Biden out of the picture, the race dynamic will realign, and the polls are likely to revert to a state similar to how things were before the debate. Harris will certainly get a modest bounce from all the positive coverage she’s receiving from the media, as well as from the convention late next month.
So far, there's only been one post-dropout poll showing Harris ahead of Trump nationally by only two points, and it's from a pollster (Ipsos) that had Biden up four points nationally as recently as April.
— Matt Margolis (@mattmargolis) July 25, 2024
It’s too early to say for sure how this race will ultimately look once the polls stabilize, but so far, it appears to be a steadying of the ship instead of a seismic shift with Kamala's best day already behind her. Democrats, who were lukewarm about Biden but uneasy about Trump's potential return, are now rallying behind Harris.
Trump's strategy will naturally need to pivot, and his team has already done so. The focus will shift to her record, her policies, and her ability to lead — which, frankly, won't be hard to attack. She's Biden without the senility. His record is her record, and voters were already leaning toward Trump before the debate.
The modest boost Harris is seeing in the polls reflects initial voter optimism, but sustaining that momentum will require a robust and agile campaign. Given her record of poorly run campaigns, that's a tall order. And right now, she doesn’t appear to have changed the dynamics significantly.
Currently, Trump leads by 2.1 points in the RCP average of Trump vs. Harris polls — which includes polling since Biden dropped out. This is roughly the same as Trump’s 1.9-point lead before the debate.
Of course, the real question is: How does the battleground state polling look? Just as he led against Biden, Trump leads in most of the battlegrounds. However, there hasn’t been as much battleground state polling between Trump and Harris, so we’ll have to wait and see. So far, it looks like things will tighten in the short term, but Trump will maintain an edge.
The moral of the story is that the polls are going to be crazy for a couple of weeks, but Kamala is likely to have her strongest showing during that time as well.
