What Are the Odds Biden Drops Out?

The odds of Presidentish Biden dropping out of his 2024 re-election campaign have soared to over 80%, according to predictive betting website Polymarket. At the time of this writing, the chances of Biden dropping out stand at 83%. The previous high before the debate was on February 10, when it was 31%; before the debate, it was just 19%

Biden has faced increasing pressure from high-ranking Democrats, including former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, to drop out. Publicly, Biden and his campaign have been insistent that he's not going anywhere.

However, privately, speculation is growing that he is taking the calls to step aside seriously. “His soul searching is actually happening, I know that for a fact,” one source said. “He’s thinking about this very seriously.”

Multiple Democratic officials believe an exit is only a matter of time, sources told Reuters.

On Thursday, Mark Halperin reported that sources told him Biden has agreed to step down as early as this weekend.

"A speech has been drafted for him. He will continue on as president, is his intention," Halperin wrote. "He also will not, I'm told, endorse Vice President Harris as his successor. They're hoping that he will endorse an open process in which the convention will be open to Vice President Harris and a few other candidates in Chicago to pick the Democratic nominee for president."

His details were incredibly specific; he also said that Jon Meacham was working on the speech for Biden.

BREAKING NEWS: Multiples sources outline the apparent state of play on Biden at this time:

* plans to announce withdrawal from nomination as early as this weekend, with Sunday most likely

* Jon Meacham polishing up remarks

* Biden with NOT resign the presidency

* Biden will… https://t.co/l0LrfDTvOL
— Mark Halperin (@MarkHalperin) July 18, 2024

However, CBS News' Robert Costa said those reports were false.

"Sources close to President Biden tell me tonight they’re *furious* that while the president is trying to recover from Covid in Rehoboth, a pressure campaign keeps picking up speed," he reported on X Thursday evening. "Lots of anger toward some donors for talking of $ drying up if he doesn’t quit, toward what they see as muted support from Pres. Obama, and toward Dem leaders who one source says are “hiding” behind statements. If they want him out, they’ll have to push, source adds."

His source said that Biden feels disrespected and believes if they want him out, they’ll have to push harder. Despite the fluid situation, there’s no effective strategy to quiet nervous Democrats, many of whom want Biden to step down soon.

Costa later posted an update.

NEWS: Historian Jon Meacham to me just now via text: “the report about my doing anything with a speech is totally false.”

Comes as Meacham is being talked about by some Democrats as a Biden confidant who might be working on an “exit the race speech” for President Biden.
— Robert Costa (@costareports) July 19, 2024