The assassination attempt against Donald Trump only temporarily delayed the push to get Joe Biden to drop out of the presidential race, and now it seems more likely than ever that Biden's team might successfully pressure him to leave the race. With that in mind, it seems likely that Kamala Harris would take his place. So how would a Trump vs. Kamala race play out?
All we have to go by there is the same thing we have to base Joe Biden’s strength against Donald Trump: polls. So what do the polls say?
"The latest polls tell conflicting stories,” explains Jonathan Draeger of RealClearPolitics. "The only post-assassination attempt poll that covered both matchups was from Forbes/HarrisX, conducted from July 13 to July 15 with 1,918 registered voters. When asked who respondents would vote for, Trump led by three points against Biden, 45% to 42%, and by seven points against Harris, 49% to 42%. When undecided voters were forced to choose, Trump’s lead shrank to two points, 51% to 49%, against Biden, and four points, 52% to 48%, against Harris."
Other polls that have tested Donald Trump against Harris and other Biden alternatives have shown similar results. A Fox News poll showed Trump leading Biden by one point and leading Harris by the same margin. Similarly, an NBC poll found Trump ahead of both Biden and Harris by two points in head-to-head matchups.
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Draeger notes that in the RealClearPolitics (RCP) averages for the presidential matchups, Harris narrowly leads Biden in terms of Trump's margins. Trump holds a 1.8-point lead in the Trump-Harris average and a 2.5-point lead in the Trump-Biden average. However, Harris's slight edge in the overall RCP Average is largely due to specific polls where she outperforms Biden, such as those from CNN and ABC News/Washington Post.
In other polls included in the Trump-Harris average, Biden either performs equally or better against Trump than Harris. The difference in averages is primarily influenced by polls that exclusively measure the Biden-Trump matchup with substantive leads for Trump.
Harris’s approval ratings are nothing to brag about either. She's the least popular vice president in the history of polling. But she slightly outperforms Biden in recent approval ratings. According to the Economist/YouGov poll (July 13-16), Biden has -21% net approval (37% approve, 59% disapprove), while Harris has -12% net approval (36% approve, 48% disapprove).
In the RCP Average, Harris has a -14.9-point favorability spread (38.7% favorable, 53.6% unfavorable), while Biden's approval is slightly lower at -17.2 points (40% approve, 57.2% disapprove). Trump had 41.4% approval and Obama 46.8% on July 18 of their respective fourth years as president.
According to FiveThirtyEight's latest polling model, Harris narrowly leads Biden in Electoral College chances, with 38% compared to 35%. However, the difference is marginal. Both candidates face similar odds against Trump, which are not favorable. State-specific analysis shows Biden performing better than Harris in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, while Harris holds stronger prospects in Nevada. In terms of the national popular vote forecast by FiveThirtyEight, Harris only marginally outperforms Biden against Trump. The model predicts Trump would defeat Harris by 1.5 points and Biden by 2.1 points.
In short, it likely won’t make much difference.
