First Major Presidential Poll Since Trump Assassination Attempt Is Released

A new poll that Emerson College Polling conducted on July 15-16 shows former President Trump leading President Biden in seven swing states and in a national survey. The poll, which was sponsored by Democrats for Next Generation found that 46% of registered voters support Trump, while 42% support Biden with 12% undecided. This marks a two-point decline in Biden’s support since earlier this month when 46% backed Trump and 44% backed Biden.

“Recent polling shows Biden losing support more significantly than Trump gaining it since the attempted assassination. This raises questions about whether Biden’s decline is still influenced by the debate or if Trump has reached his support ceiling.” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a statement.

When third-party candidates are added to the ballot test, Trump either maintains or extends his advantage in the national poll and 6 of 7 swing states.
Arizona: Trump 46%, Biden 36%, other candidates 8.2%
Georgia: Trump 44%, Biden 39%, other candidates 9.3%
Michigan: Trump 43%, Biden 40%, other candidates 8.3%
Nevada: Trump 43%, Biden 40%, other candidates 9.2%
North Carolina: Trump 47%, Biden 38%, other candidates 8.7%
Pennsylvania: Trump 46%, Biden 40%, other candidates 6.3%
Wisconsin: Trump 46%, Biden 43%, other candidates 6.5%
National: Trump 44%, Biden 38%, other candidates 8.4 %
Since March 2024, Trump has gained one point in Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, and two points in Arizona, while he has lost a point in Michigan.

The country is clearly divided on the issue of whether President Biden should withdraw from the race. The poll found that 52% of respondents believe he should, while 48% believe he should not. On the question of whether former President Trump should withdraw — though for what reason, I have no idea — 56% think he should remain in the race, whereas 44% think he should step aside.

Among Democratic primary voters, 64% believe Biden should not withdraw, while 36% believe he should. Conversely, 64% of Republican primary voters think Biden should withdraw, with 36% believing he should stay in the race. A majority of white (54%) and Hispanic (55%) voters think Biden should withdraw, whereas 65% of black voters think he should not.

When broken down by age, about 60% of voters under 50 believe that Biden should withdraw, while 60% of voters over 60 think he should not. Specifically, 60% of voters aged 18-29, 61% of those in their 30s, 57% of those in their 40s, 54% of those in their 50s, 39% of those in their 60s, and 42% of those over 70 think Biden should withdraw.

As for Trump, 88% of Republican primary voters believe he should not withdraw, while 12% think he should for some reason. Among Democratic primary voters, 75% believe Trump should withdraw, while 25% think he should not. Additionally, 52% of both men and women believe Biden should withdraw. In contrast, 50% of women believe Trump should withdraw, compared to only 36% of men.

Again, it's not exactly clear why Trump would have to withdraw.