Is Donald Trump headed for a landslide victory? It's certainly possible. Trump has had the advantage in polling, voter enthusiasm, and even campaign cash. His map is expanding, while Joe Biden's path to 270 has become increasingly narrow to almost nonexistent, as some say. So, realistically, what is Trump's Electoral College vote ceiling? I've looked at recent polling to see what could be in our future.
We ought to take the potential for a Trump landslide seriously. Even Democrats think Trump is potentially headed for a landslide.
“Donald Trump is on track, I think, to win this election and maybe win it by a landslide and take with him the Senate and the House,” Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.) said last week. And that was before the failed assassination attempt.
Bennet is hardly alone in his assessment either. Hearing such talk from Democrats tells you just how serious they think the situation is. Of course, the term "landslide" can be somewhat subjective, so I think it's a necessary exercise to look at the state of race and assess what Trump landslide would realistically look like.
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No one is expecting a Reaganesque landslide where he could win all but one state, but recent polling has suggested that Trump is competitive in a lot more states than many previously thought, and given the turmoil the Democratic Party is going through right now, we can reasonably predict, based on what states appear to be in play at this moment, what Trump's ceiling is in the Electoral College.
Before I show you the map, I should point out that it isn't likely that the election will play out this way. This is, in my estimation, the absolute best possible outcome that Donald Trump can expect, assuming his momentum continues, while Democrats remain divided over Joe Biden. It doesn't mean it won't happen, but I would say the odds are slim. This is what I suspect is the best-case scenario for Trump.
The above map shows Trump winning with 361 Electoral College votes to Joe Biden's 177.
In this projection, Trump sweeps the Sun Belt and Great Lakes battlegrounds and adds New Mexico, Virginia, New Jersey, and New Hampshire to his column. He also wins Nebraska's 2nd district, earning all five of the state's EC votes, and statewide in Maine, earning three of the state's four EC votes.
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For some context here, this is a landslide comparable to Obama's 2008 victory, when he won 365 Electoral College votes to John McCain's 173. For sure, I suspect we would all love to see the election play out this way.
How did I come up with this projection? I'm glad you asked.
For starters, recent polling showed Trump ahead in Virginia, New Hampshire, New Jersey, and Minnesota and within striking distance in New Mexico. Colorado may be getting tight as well, but there hasn't been any recent polling there to be sure. Yes, some of this projection is based on just one recent poll in the state showing Trump ahead, which I would never say is enough to be confident about Trump's position in those states, but remember, this is a best-case-scenario and not meant to be an assessment of the current state of the race. If a poll shows Trump close or ahead in a state, the map above translates that into a potential victory for Trump if his momentum holds.
