I've been thinking a lot about what might happen in the 2024 presidential election since the debate. Forget the polls, forget the legal and political challenges that would arise. The recent rumors swirling around Joe Biden's potential withdrawal are significant, but if Biden withdraws, it would create a constitutional crisis. With that in mind, it becomes more clear that Biden can't drop out of the race.
Think about it. All the obsession with the polls and whether there are any Democrats who could replace Biden on the ticket is just a distraction from the real problem with a Biden withdrawal. The debate opened the eyes of many of the left who have been in denial about Biden's physical and cognitive decline.
According to recent reports, Biden has privately admitted to key allies that his campaign is on shaky ground after his disastrous debate performance. As the New York Times reported, "President Biden has told a key ally that he knows he may not be able to salvage his candidacy if he cannot convince the public in the coming days that he is up for the job." The White House disputes this report, but one thing is for sure: if Biden does leave the race, it's because concerns over his physical and mental health were too great for him to continue.
So if Biden leaves the race due to competency concerns, it raises a serious question that cannot be ignored, and will be endlessly debated, even by his longtime defenders: Is he fit to continue serving as president?
Related: ‘The Dam Has Broken’: 25 House Dems Plan to Call for Biden to Drop Out
Biden dropping out would be a de facto admission of his inability to serve. This isn't just about the campaign trail; it's about the Oval Office. If Biden can't handle the rigors of campaigning, why should anyone, even those who have been defending him for years, believe he can still handle the demands of the presidency?
For Biden to withdraw from the race but not resign the presidency means that a man who physically and mentally cannot continue a presidential campaign would still be left running the country. Many of us have long been saying that Biden isn't the one calling the shots, and his withdrawal would bring those concerns to a fever pitch. It would also raise questions about the need to invoke the 25th Amendment — which provides a constitutional process for dealing with presidential incapacity. A president can be removed from office if the vice president and a majority of the Cabinet declare in writing that the president is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office.
However, even in this situation, I suspect such a move is unlikely. Biden doesn't want that to be part of his legacy.
While invoking the 25th Amendment would be unlikely, how can Biden in good conscience continue to lead the nation? This question would demand immediate answers, and calls for invoking the 25th Amendment would be endless and impossible to ignore. I suspect the backlash against the Democrats would be severe as their previous efforts to cover up Biden's cognitive decline would become the biggest political scandal since Watergate.
Despite the aforementioned New York Times report, Biden reportedly remains defiant.
President Biden on campaign call that just wrapped, per person on the call:
— Elena Schneider (@ec_schneider) July 3, 2024
"Let me say this as clearly as I possibly can as simply and straightforward as I can: I am running…no one’s pushing me out. I’m not leaving. I’m in this race to the end and we’re going to win.”
Does the Biden campaign foresee this problem as well, and is it warning Democrats that this situation would destroy them? It may be the only play it has to keep Biden in the race.
