When it comes to presidential campaigns, you should always expect to hear the rosiest of assessments from campaign leaders and surrogates. For example, you'll hear lots about how they think various states are in play because they need to give the impression that things are going well. Sometimes, though, reality has to set in, and I think that's starting to happen with the Biden campaign.
For example, back in April, Biden campaign manager Julie Chávez Rodríguez insisted that Florida was “winnable," even though nobody is calling Florida a battleground state. According to a campaign memo, "abortion rights will be front and center in Florida this election cycle."
But is the campaign really bullish about Florida? No. According to Jen O’Malley-Dillon, the chair of Biden's campaign, she sees North Carolina as a battleground state, not Florida.
Heilemann: And you’re saying you see North Carolina also as a battleground state?
— Nick Field (@nick_field90) June 24, 2024
O'Malley-Dillon: Yes.
Heilemann: Florida?
O'Malley-Dillon: No.https://t.co/lfxbxyXSJy
However, a day later, the Biden campaign's battleground states director, Dan Kanninen, insisted that Florida is in play and that they are hopeful they can win it in November.
“Florida is absolutely in play,” he told the Orlando Sentinel.
Not only does O’Malley-Dillon seem to not think so, but hardly anybody else considers Florida a battleground state. Kanninen, however, seems to be a real believer that the same state that reelected Ron DeSantis by 20 points in 2022 will vote for Biden in November.
The Biden campaign has reportedly hired 28 full-time staff members, along with a political director and a communications director. They have also opened 13 offices across key cities. It's Kanninen's job to decide which states to invest resources in, and it's obvious that the campaign is investing resources in Florida — despite O’Malley-Dillon writing Florida off as a lost cause.
“We’ll have a presence in all the major markets in Florida,” said Kanninen, whose job is to decide in which states to invest campaign dollars. “Unlike Trump, who is not investing in this state, we have a strong team of leaders on the ground who are building organizing teams.”
Of course, there's a reason why Trump isn't focusing so much on Florida: he doesn't have to. Florida has become a solid red state under Ron DeSantis, and Republicans have been crushing Democrats in voter registration for years now. The last time a Democrat won Florida was Barack Obama in 2012, and he may be the last time for a long time.
Since 2012, Florida has become a stronghold for Republicans. Trump narrowly defeated Hillary Clinton in Florida by one percentage point in 2016 and expanded his margin to 3.3 points over Biden in 2020. Currently, Trump leads by 7.6 points in the RealClearPolitics average in the state.
In the 2022 midterms, DeSantis won reelection by nearly 20 points over Democrat Charlie Crist. Naturally, Florida Republicans aren't worried.
“We’re going to win Florida, and we’re going to win it big,” said Evan Power, the chairman of the Republican Party of Florida.
Even though the Biden campaign is devoting resources to flipping Florida, its top priorities are the states he won in 2020 — all of which he won marginally and under dubious circumstances, like Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania (where Trump leads in the RCP average) and Wisconsin (which is tied in the RCP average). But the campaign also believes that it can flip North Carolina — where Trump has a nearly six-point lead in the RCP average.
So why is the Biden campaign wasting resources in Florida when they likely know it's a lost cause for Biden? I suspect it's to help boost down-ballot races for Democrats.
Either way, for the Biden campaign chair to admit that Florida isn't in play is huge. She's conceding that the abortion issue isn't going to make Florida winnable for the Democrats. In short, they realize that Biden's map is shrinking.
