Today, I was asked if I am as optimistic about the 2024 election as I sound in my articles. The answer, of course, is yes. It doesn’t do the conservative movement any good to give our readers a false sense of hope about the election. For years, some voices on the right have claimed that Donald Trump can’t win this election. Well, it’s evident that he actually can, and I strongly believe he will.
And the reason isn’t the match-up polls.
The match-up polls indeed show Trump is in a solid position to win. Nationally, Trump has been ahead in the RealClearPolitics average for months. Of course, as we’ve discussed before, the battleground state polls matter more, and Trump leads in most of the battleground states that will decide this election. Even some traditionally blue states have become competitive.
However, there are other polls that I would argue matter more because they show that Joe Biden has lost support from the voters that Democrat presidential candidates have been dependent on for decades to win elections.
We’ve talked about Joe Biden’s polling among black voters for months. Even the pro-Biden crowd has been sounding the alarm. Last month, CNN’s data analyst Harry Enten highlighted Trump’s significant gains among black voters, describing it as a major concern for Biden’s re-election bid. Enten noted that Trump could achieve historic support from black voters as Biden’s approval ratings continue to drop. Enten pointed out at the time that Biden’s support among black voters had decreased by 12%, while Trump’s support had surged to 22%.
“My goodness gracious,” he said. “This would be by far the best performance for a Republican candidate among black voters in a generation, two generations, probably since 1960 and Richard Nixon against John F. Kennedy.”
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Polls have also shown that Joe Biden is losing support from another historically reliably Democrat-voting demographic: Hispanic and Latino voters. A recent poll even found that Latino voters agree with Trump more on immigration than Biden and are increasingly identifying as independent. Regardless of whether sizable portions of Hispanics and Latinos vote for Trump or Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in November, if they’re not voting for Biden, it helps Trump.
Another surprising development comes from young voters. Now, I can’t say I’ve had much faith in the youth vote for years, but multiple polls show that the Biden presidency has woken up some young voters. The Biden economy is hurting them, too, and so the gap in support between Biden and Trump from young voters has shrunk considerably since 2020. While it may be because they're voting for a third party instead of Trump, this is still a demographic that Biden can't afford to lose support from.
And finally, we have women voters. Biden really has a problem now because he thinks that he's got their votes locked up because of the abortion issue. Or does he? As PJM's Catherine Salgado pointed out earlier this week, Donald Trump is closing the gap with women voters between him and Joe Biden. While this may be news to the left, women aren't single-issue voters who only vote for pro-abortion candidates. In the end, economic issues are reigning supreme, even with women, and Biden's former 13-point lead among women has dwindled to just four points.
If that weren't bad enough for Biden, a recent report suggests that Biden's support from LGBTQ voters is also taking a hit.
So, match-up polling aside, how does Biden win when the Democratic Party coalition is falling apart?
Of course, that's no excuse for taking the election for granted and becoming complacent.
