Joe Biden has tried many times to reset his campaign. His most significant attempt, of course, was his State of the Union address, which gave him a tiny and short-lived bump in the polls. The sham trial and the pre-ordained verdict represent his next best opportunity to regain moment in the election, and, as of today, it doesn’t look like it’s going to work.
"Democrats and their media allies should put the corks back in their champagne bottles because despite a massive spike in Trial awareness from our Wednesday night to Thursday night data (pre- and post-conviction – 800 likely voters per night), voters appeared to shrug at the court ruling as there was NO impact on any of the ballots,” a veteran GOP pollster said in a campaign memo that PJ Media received.
According to Tony Fabrizio, despite the increase in awareness, "there was no change in voters’ opinions of the Trial – 52% said they thought the Trial was politically motivated in Wednesday’s data and it stayed at 52%."
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President Trump’s lead in every ballot match-up scenario remained statistically unchanged. Polling in various battleground states — which will ultimately decide the election — found that most of the trial’s impact was already “baked into the cake” and that the verdict would have a "marginal impact” on polling. Donald Trump has led in both national and battleground state polling for the bulk of the 2024 presidential campaign, and experts on both sides of the aisle have said at various times that if the election were held today, Trump would win. The fundamentals just work to his advantage, as voters see him as the more effective and competent choice on the issues that matter most.
"However, we wouldn’t be surprised to see some national media polls (where deep blue states like CA, NY, and IL hold great weight) show shifts based on the ruling,” Fabrizio writes.
That hasn’t stopped the media from pushing the narrative that Trump’s seen a devastating swing toward Biden in the polls. However, a closer look at polling data shows that any shift so far is, as Fabrizio noted, marginal.
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For example, the latest Morning Consult poll (post-verdict) shows Biden up one point nationally, a small swing from its previous poll showing Trump up two points — hardly enough to translate into a Biden victory and roughly equivalent to past leads he’s had in their polling. The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll shows Biden up two points — less than the 4-point lead Biden had in early April and representing a mere two-point shift, which lies within the margin of error — of its previous poll. Meanwhile, a Forbes/HarrisX poll taken the day of and the day after the verdict showed Trump leading by two points over Biden nationally — a two-point shift in Trump’s favor over its previous poll.
Other post-verdict polls have looked good for Trump as well. A Daily Mail snap poll found a +6 shift in Trump’s approval.
Of course, it is still early, but so far, there’s little reason to believe that the verdict will have a significant or lasting impact on the polls. We may not see the full impact of the verdict for a couple of weeks.
