Even if we take the 2020 election results at face value, Joe Biden's position was never strong. His victory hinged on a few thousand votes in a few states. At the very least, those elections were tipped in his favor due to the unprecedented prevalence of mail-in voting, thanks to the pandemic.
This year, we have no pandemic (yet), and Joe Biden has to essentially run against himself and his terrible record. That's no small feat because voters are in a unique position to contrast life under both candidates and assess which presidency has been better for them and their families. To say the advantage goes to Trump is an understatement.
Now, Democratic strategists are admitting that Joe Biden is in a very tough spot.
"Even a modest recovery in Biden’s current support could put him in position to win states worth 255 Electoral College votes, strategists in both parties agree," writes Ronald Brownstein of the Atlantic. "His problem is that every option for capturing the final 15 Electoral College votes he would need to reach a winning majority of 270 looks significantly more difficult."
At this point, former President Donald Trump’s gains have provided him with more plausible alternatives to cross the last mile to 270. Trump’s personal vulnerabilities, Biden’s edge in building a campaign organization, and abortion rights’ prominence in several key swing states could erase that advantage. But for now, Biden looks to have less margin for error than the former president.
Looking at the polls and the electoral map, it's easy to see where Biden's problems lie. Donald Trump has solid leads in Arizona and Georgia — two states that narrowly went to Biden in 2020. Trump also polls consistently ahead in Nevada. If these three states all go to Trump in November and all else stays the same from 2020, Biden has to win all three of the "blue wall" states: Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, to pull off a 270-268 victory, whereas Trump only needs to win one of these states to pass 270 Electoral College votes and win the election.
Given Trump's leads in NV, AZ, and GA, Biden must win all three "blue wall" states to win the presidency. pic.twitter.com/6hEbw8NMHK
— Matt Margolis (@mattmargolis) May 8, 2024
And right now, that's a rather tall order. Trump leads in the RealClearPolling average in all three of those states.
Even famed Democratic strategist James Carville sees this election being decided by these three states, telling The Atlantic that if Biden can’t hold all three of these states, he'll have to “catch an inside straight to win.” And other Democratic strategists who spoke with the outlet seem to agree.
Biden has a much greater area of vulnerable terrain to defend. In 2020, he carried three of his 25 states by less than a single percentage point—Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin—and won Pennsylvania by a little more than one point. He also won Michigan and Nevada by about 2.5 percentage points each; in all, Biden carried six states by less than three points, compared with just one for Trump. Even Minnesota and New Hampshire, both of which Biden won by about seven points, don’t look entirely safe for him in 2024, though he remains favored in each.
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So far, Biden's best opportunity to reset his campaign has been a swing and a miss. His post-State of the Union bump was small and short-lived. Currently, despite Trump's recent advantage in Michigan, RFK Jr.'s qualification for the ballot in that state actually appears to be hurting Trump more than Biden. But Trump has had a consistent lead in Wisconsin for months and appears to have the momentum in Pennsylvania.
In the end, Biden is on defense, and that's not a solid position for an incumbent. Incumbents who win elections typically do so by expanding their map of support, and at this point, it doesn't look like Biden can do that.
