Don’t believe the hype, it’s not Robert F. Kennedy Jr. who’s the spoiler in this election, it’s Joe Biden. At least, that’s what Kennedy’s campaign says.
Democrats have been panicking about Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s independent candidacy for months now and with good reason. The Democratic Party has since been attacking Kennedy, and Biden had a campaign event with members of Kennedy's family endorsing him.
There is no doubt that Kennedy’s presence on the ballot will have an impact on the election, but that impact isn’t entirely straightforward. While it helps Trump nationally, and in certain states, it sometimes helps Biden in other states like Michigan.
Kennedy, for his part, is trying to shed the spoiler reputation, and now he’s produced a poll that allegedly confirms it. According to a Kennedy-sponsored poll conducted by John Zogby Strategies, Trump is the clear winner of the election in a two-way race between him and Biden. But in hypothetical two-way matchups between Kennedy and the two major party candidates, Kennedy allegedly defeats them both.
"President Biden cannot beat President Trump. When you actually poll every state and tally the electoral votes, Biden loses in a head-to-head against Trump and he loses in a three-way too,” Kennedy’s campaign said in a statement.
According to Kennedy’s poll, which surveyed voters in all fifty states, Trump would narrowly lose to Kennedy in a two-way matchup, 270 to 268. Meanwhile, in a two-way matchup between Biden and Kennedy, Kennedy wins in a landslide with 367 Electoral College votes compared to Biden’s 171.
#NEW @zogbystrategies/@RobertKennedyJr (I) 50-state Poll:
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) May 2, 2024
Trump 294
Biden 244
.
Kennedy 367
Biden 171
Kennedy 270
Trump 268
26,408 LV, 4/14-21https://t.co/9tlysKaaaN pic.twitter.com/pEpGTVgsXj
“To be a spoiler, a candidate has to fulfill two requirements — first, they must not be able to win themselves, and, second, by participating in the election, they must prevent someone else from winning who otherwise would,” says Kennedy, who argues that by this standard, the only spoiler in the race is Biden. Kennedy is now calling on Biden to step down from the race.
“[Biden] is the one who cannot win against either candidate and whose presence gives Trump the victory instead of Kennedy,” says the Kennedy campaign.
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As fascinating as these poll results are, there are ample reasons to be skeptical. For one thing, the Kennedy campaign boasts that the poll "surveyed more than 26,000 likely voters across the country and has a margin of error of only 0.6%.”
“Most presidential polls rely on responses from around 2,000 people,” the campaign points out. "That means they have a margin of error of several percentage points."
However, when you look at the cross tabs, you find that the results for each state come with the disclaimer "Subsets Have Higher Error Margins,” which makes sense because the sample sizes for each state are smaller than many reputable state polls.
In other words, this poll isn’t as reliable as the Kennedy campaign suggests — at least not on a state-by-state basis.
