Donald Trump spent his entire presidency with approval ratings underwater. He's just the kind of guy who people love to hate. Yet, since Trump left office, attitudes toward his presidency have improved dramatically. And it's kind of obvious why.
According to a new New York Times/Siena poll, perceptions of Trump's presidency have taken a sharp turn towards the positive, particularly regarding the economy and law enforcement.
"While the memories of Mr. Trump’s tumultuous and chaotic administration have not significantly faded, many voters now have a rosier picture of his handling of the economy, immigration and maintaining law and order," reports the New York Times. "Ahead of the 2020 election, only 39 percent of voters said that the country was better off after Mr. Trump took office. Now, looking back, nearly half say that he improved things during his time as president."
"The poll’s findings underscore the way in which a segment of voters have changed their minds about the Trump era, recalling those years as a time of economic prosperity and strong national security," the report continued.
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According to the poll, perceptions of Trump's handling of the economy have jumped 10 points. The poll also found a 9-point increase in registered voters who believe Trump left the country better off and an 8-point increase in those who approve of his handling and maintenance of law and order.
Meanwhile, the poll found that only 25% of registered voters think that Joe Biden has been "mostly good for America," compared to 42% who say the same about Trump.
The significance of the shift in Trump's approval and the perception of him vs. Joe Biden cannot be overstated. The 2024 election is going to be a Trump/Biden rematch, and as the economy emerges as a pivotal issue for voters, they have a true apples-to-apples comparison of which candidate was better for them.
The New York Times actually interviewed a number of former Biden voters who plan to vote for Trump in November.
From where I sit, this shift was inevitable. It wasn't all that long ago that George W. Bush left the White House with a historically low approval rating of 33%. Between his rather rocky second term and the global financial crisis, it's not particularly hard to understand why even his own supporters turned on him.
And then Barack Obama was elected, and the country really went to hell. Suddenly, George W. Bush's poll numbers started to improve, as Americans remembered that things weren't so bad on his watch. Remember those "Miss Me Yet?" billboards that started popping up a year or so into Obama's presidency? Bush may have inherited a recession that was worsened by the 9/11 attacks, but the recovery that Obama claimed would happen after enacting his stimulus plan didn't happen. Unemployment hit 10%, gas prices hovered around $4 a gallon for roughly three years, and healthcare got more expensive — way more expensive.
Bush's public image continued to improve when Trump took office, after Democrats decided that Bush wasn't Hitler but Trump was. Bush's favorability ratings nearly doubled during Trump's presidency compared to when he left office.
This isn't exactly a new phenomenon, either. We've seen prior polls and focus groups that have similarly found that while many people may not have liked Trump's style, they recognize that they were better off during his presidency—and that is something that Biden can't change.
