I can still remember when Ohio was the quintessential bellwether battleground state. Winning Ohio was often the key to winning the presidency, especially for a Republican. Joe Biden fought hard to be competitive in the state and ended up losing by eight points. In 2022, J.D. Vance, backed by former President Trump, secured a solid victory with a comfortable six-point margin.
Vance's victory sounded alarm bells for Democratic incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown, who has held the Senate seat since 2006. On Tuesday, the Trump-endorsed Bernie Moreno won the contentious Republican primary. Moreno will face Brown in November.
The race is seen as a prime pickup opportunity for the Republican Party, and for sure, it can be. Brown's previous victories have generally been linked to favorable Democratic cycles, such as his initial election in 2006—which was a particularly bad year for Republicans. He managed to win reelection in 2012 alongside Barack Obama's victory in the state and again in 2018 during what was considered a Democratic surge year.
Related: Trump-Endorsed Bernie Moreno Wins Ohio Senate Primary
Of course, 2024 is very different from past cycles. Not only has Ohio trended more Republican in recent years, but Joe Biden isn’t making a serious play there this year. This may not be just to preserve resources, but to help Sherrod Brown, who may be facing his toughest election yet.
Or is he?
Recent polling shows Brown ahead of Moreno from anywhere between two and six points, depending on the poll. If you’re on Brown’s campaign, you’re likely happy to see that Brown has led in all of the polls but you're perhaps nervous that his lead is only in the single digits. That’s not the most comfortable position for an incumbent to be in, especially an incumbent in a state trending toward the Republican Party in a presidential election where the incumbent Democrat president is Joe Biden. With the primary over, it’s conceivable that the polls may shift, and Moreno is sure to join Donald Trump on his Ohio campaign stops, which may help as well.
Of course, it’s not all that simple. As our esteemed editor Paula Bolyard pointed out Tuesday, "Brown has amassed a massive war chest of $14.6 million, in part because he didn't have primary challengers. It will now be up to Moreno, a political newcomer, to find a way to beat the entrenched incumbent. Both the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball have the race as a toss-up. The RealClearPolitics average shows Brown at +5 in a matchup between Moreno and Brown."
Despite Brown’s financial advantage, it shouldn’t be too hard for Moreno to paint him as out of step with Ohio voters. According to Heritage Action’s scorecard, Brown has a lifetime conservative score of 3%, and a 0% score for the current session. Analysis from FiveThirtyEight shows that he votes with Joe Biden 98.5% of the time, which is not only ridiculously high, but significantly higher than any U.S. senator in a state won by Donald Trump. Brown certainly hasn’t voted like he represents a swing state or a red state, and this election appears to be the best opportunity to send him into retirement.
