Few would argue that Donald Trump currently has the advantage in the presidential election this year. Democrat insiders are so terrified that Joe Biden is headed for an inevitable defeat that some are calling for Kamala Harris to replace him or to drop out so Biden can run with someone more competent and likable. Neither scenario looks likely at this point.
It looks like Trump is expanding the map — he's not only leading in states he won in 2016 but lost in 2020 but also in states he didn't win either time.
But that doesn't mean that Biden is only playing defense. According to a report from the Daily Caller, Democrats are convinced that North Carolina might be in play this year.
"Several electoral and demographic factors in North Carolina could put the red state in play for President Joe Biden in November, political experts told the Daily Caller News Foundation," the outlet reports. "Democrats are setting their sights on North Carolina as opposed to other battleground states like Georgia for a rematch with former President Donald Trump. The narrow margin Trump won by in 2020, population changes in the state, and the election of Republican gubernatorial nominee Mark Robinson might put North Carolina back on the map for Biden this cycle, according to political scientists and state operatives."
The article suggests that winning Georgia looks unlikely for Biden, and political experts told the Daily Caller that various electoral and demographic dynamics in North Carolina could potentially put the state in play.
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“Looks like at this point, North Carolina is the Trump state that is most likely to be in play in 2024, while there are half a dozen Biden states that are expected to be in play,” Charles Bullock, a political science professor at the University of Georgia, told the outlet.
“We like our chances here, we think they have a real shot to win,” said Morgan Jackson, a North Carolina-based Democratic strategist.
Not only was Trump's margin of victory in North Carolina rather slim, but North Carolina's urban centers, such as Raleigh, Charlotte, and Durham, have also experienced significant population growth since then. North Carolina ranks among the nation's top states for population increase from 2022 to 2023, trailing only Texas and Florida. Political analysts believe that this surge in North Carolina is predominantly due to Democratic-leaning individuals moving in. The polls just don't show it.
As of right now, Trump has an average lead of 5.5 points in the polls that RealClearPolitics tracks — which is far better than the position he was in four years ago when Biden had an average lead of 3.4 points in the state. It's a lot easier to expand your map when you're popular, and Biden is by no means popular. Polls also show that Biden is bleeding support from nonwhite voters — a crucial demographic of the Democratic coalition.
The campaign has plenty of money, so it makes sense that the Biden campaign would devote resources to North Carolina. However, this hardly seems like the cycle where Biden can successfully flip the state — which last voted Democrat in 2008 when Barack Obama won the state but came back to its senses in 2012.
Biden mostly led in the polls in North Carolina four years ago, ending the campaign with an average lead of 0.2 points for Trump — and he ultimately won by 1.3 points. This was also an election that the predominance of mail-in voting swayed heavily — a factor that won't be so strong this year. So I wouldn't put too much stock in Democrat experts thinking that North Carolina is in play this year.
