If you're hoping that Joe Biden wins in November, you haven't had much good news since September — which is the last time he led in the polls. Between Biden's approval ratings, general election match-up polls, and battleground state polling, there's a reason why Democrats are terrified, and many are calling on him to drop out. I'm sure there are plenty of party insiders who are wishing Biden wouldn't run at all.
And you can be sure that the latest poll gave them all another heart attack.
According to the latest HarrisX poll, Biden's approval ratings remain stuck underwater, with only 39% of respondents approving of his job performance and a solid majority of 56% expressing disapproval. It is generally accepted that an incumbent president is in safe reelection territory when their approval rating is over 50%. As this poll shows, Biden is nowhere near that, and the general election match-ups bore this out. The poll shows that Donald Trump now boasts a 9-point lead over Joe Biden nationally.
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Trump was the preferred choice for 47% of respondents, while Biden trailed at 38%. The poll found 15% were undecided. When third-party candidates entered the equation, Trump's lead went down to 8 points, with 11 percent remaining undecided.
NEW: 39% of registered voters approve of President Joe Biden's job performance, while 56% disapprove, and 5% remain unsure.
— HarrisX (@Harris_X_) February 20, 2024
Meanwhile, 47% of registered voters express a preference for Donald Trump in a hypothetical general presidential election today, compared to 38% for Biden.… pic.twitter.com/iVrf0tLQ8e
This is a good time to point out that the poll surveyed 3,024 registered voters, not even likely voters. Also, it was conducted after the damning Hur report brought Biden's poor cognitive health into the limelight — revealing that he couldn't remember when he was vice president or when his son Beau died — and after Biden repeatedly claimed to have had conversations with world leaders who were dead.
The poll also found that Trump receives more crossover votes than Joe Biden.
Among GOP voters, 87% support for Trump in the general election, while 77% of Democrats favor Biden. However, 14% of Democrats would choose Trump, and 5% of Republicans would opt for Biden.
— HarrisX (@Harris_X_) February 20, 2024
This survey was conducted online within the United States from February 12-16 among…
For what it's worth, I think this poll is an outlier. I just don't see Trump beating Joe Biden by nine points nationally. I also thought that the latest Quinnipiac University poll showing Biden up six points nationally was an outlier, considering that most polls showed Trump leading. In the few that have shown Biden up in recent months, none had him leading by much more than a couple of points. For sure, Trump being up nine points is more believable than Biden being up six, but elections have been trending tighter and tighter as the electorate becomes increasingly polarized. I don't see the spread ever exceeding four or maybe five points toward either candidate, with two to three points being far more realistic.
But regardless of the poll likely being an outlier, it still spells trouble for Biden. No matter how much he tries, he can't get the polls to swing back in his direction.
