Almost immediately after Joe Biden took office, there was speculation about who might replace him on the top of the Democratic Party ticket in 2024. It was widely believed that Joe Biden likely wouldn't serve out a full term or, even if he did, that he wouldn't seek reelection... for obvious reasons. In 2020, there's no doubt that many on the left saw Biden as a means to an end. He was the so-called centrist who could beat Trump. Now, however, polls show that he can't beat Trump. National polls and battleground state polls alike indicate that Donald Trump is highly favored to win.
So, what is the party to do? There's been a lot of talk about replacing Biden -- either after the primaries, at the convention, or even after the convention -- if it looks like he's headed for defeat. These options are risky on their face because they would involve a contentious battle within the Democratic Party about who should represent their party, and most aren't likely to be happy with the result. Worse yet, it would only give the party a few months at best to coalesce around their new candidate. Still, the panic button has been pressed repeatedly at this point, as Democrats think they need to replace Biden to have a shot at winning the 2024 election. Indeed, the rumors are out there — especially after the release of the Hur report.
And why not? Obviously, someone younger and, you know, not senile could potentially invigorate the party and excite them in a way that gives them a much better chance...right?
Actually, no.
In a new poll from Emerson College, former President Trump's lead actually increased in matchups with Vice President Kamala Harris, Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-Calif), and Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D-Mich.)
The new poll, released Friday, shows President Donald Trump and Joe Biden in a tight race, with Trump garnering 45% of voter support, Biden at 44%, and 11% undecided. In the alternative hypothetical matchups, Trump secures a lead with 46% against Kamala Harris's 43% and California Gov. Gavin Newsom's 36%. When facing Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, Trump maintains a 45% lead compared to Whitmer's 33%.
Related: Do Democrats Have a Viable Plan B for the Election?
Perhaps the most surprising part is the matchup with Newsom. The California governor has been waging a shadow campaign for many months now, and many believe he's been waiting to step in to take over for Biden should the moment present itself. Leftist comedian Bill Maher recently said that he thinks Newsom could win the election more easily than Biden. Clearly, this poll shows that's not the case. The disparity seen in Trump's matchups with Newsom and Whitmer is more likely due to Newsom and Whitmer's lack of national recognition. We'd likely seen tightening in a real election. Nevertheless, it proves that Democrats, in the event that they replace Joe Biden, can't afford to waste time introducing a candidate on the national stage so late in the campaign.
So, unfortunately for the Democrats, their best shot is to keep running Joe Biden.
Imagine being in such a terrible position.
