Let me preface this article by pointing out that I'm not giving Joe Biden political advice. It's really not in anyone's best interest for Biden to get good advice before the election, and it's comforting to know that no one in his inner circle seems capable of doing so.
The fact is that Joe Biden's political problems are all but baked into the cake. He can't do a thing about his age or his cognitive decline. Staying out of the public eye, while it may seem like the lesser of two evils, doesn't restore the public's confidence in his ability to lead this country any more than his speaking in public does.
More often than not, one issue (and one issue alone) can make or break an election for an incumbent: the economy — and he's certainly gotten horrible economic advice. Inflation started to skyrocket after he took office, and his administration spent months claiming it was because of the pandemic and that it would be "transitory."
It was neither, and the administration is now paying the price for not taking the problem seriously or doing anything about it. The White House talks a good game for sure, but what good is that? According to the Biden administration, inflation is going down, but that's doublespeak. Inflation isn't going down; the rate of inflation has merely slowed, and the public isn't fooled by the talking points trying to convince them that Biden's policies have brought prices down when they clearly haven't.
Whoever at the White House thought that trying to convince the public that prices are down and wages are up would work ought to be fired. Whoever decided to brand the economy "Bidenomics" when people are sour on it ought to be flipping burgers at McDonald's, not advising the president of the United States.
But Biden's actions inform us that his advisors know that the economy will matter more in the upcoming election than any other issue. That's why Biden routinely repeats the long-debunked claim that he has the best record of job creation compared to any other president. Even the Biden-supporting network CNN has called him out for this lie.
Related: Biden’s Worst Lies From the Past Year
Whether they've figured this out or not, talking up a bad economy won't work, but a good economy might save Joe Biden. For that to happen, inflation would actually have to go down and prices along with it. If it stopped costing an arm and a leg to get a handful of groceries or to fill up your gas tank, voters might actually be inclined to forgive Biden's failed economic policies of the previous three years.
But who expects that to happen? The truth is that Team Biden, despite whatever face it puts forth publicly, must be terrified about what 2024 might bring. Many experts are predicting a recession in 2024, and should one happen, it's hard to see how Joe Biden could eke out a victory in November.
TD Securities puts the odds of a recession in 2024 at 65%. According to George Glover at Business Insider, a recession is anticipated in Q2-Q3 2024. Charlie Dougherty, a senior economist at Wells Fargo, predicted last year that a recession may happen in the second half of 2024.
Biden's prospects for victory in 2024 are bleak, even if the current status quo is unchanged. But even if a minor recession were to occur, especially in the latter half of the year, it's over.
