In all honesty, I hate making predictions. More often than not, people wind up with egg on their faces when they do. But it's 2024, a new year, and I'm going to be bold in my first post of the year. When you write about politics every day, you're in a relatively strong position to make some well-informed, educated guesses, and I have quite a few of them.
I've given these predictions a lot of thought, and I think they're all pretty solid.
SCOTUS will settle Trump's eligibility to be on the ballot
Honestly, this is no-brainer, which is why I put it first. While most states have highly rejected efforts to boot Trump from the ballot, the Colorado State Supreme Court ruled that Trump was ineligible under the 14th Amendment, and the Maine secretary of State decided to go rogue and declare Trump guilty without a trial. While some leftists cheered, experts on both sides of the aisle have predicted that the Supreme Court will unanimously overturn the rulings against Trump. My gut tells me at least one of the court’s liberals will vote against Trump.
Claudine Gay will resign as president of Harvard
As defiant as Harvard president Claudine Gay has been in light of her horrible congressional testimony, anti-Semitism at Harvard, and her growing plagiarism scandal, which doesn’t appear to be going away, it seems inevitable that she’ll start receiving pressure to resign. I don’t believe for a second that her colleagues will ever give her the condemnation that she deserves, but they will see her resignation as an opportunity to take the negative attention away from Harvard, which has lost big donors and applicants.
Biden will be impeached, but not convicted
Another no-brainer here. The evidence against him is substantial. There is little reason to believe that Republicans who were united in voting for the impeachment inquiry will be less convinced of Biden's guilt after the inquiry.
Biden will not drop out
Despite his lousy poll numbers, Joe Biden sees himself as the only Democrat who can defeat Trump. Biden will also feel emboldened by the effort to impeach him to stay in the race. He also needs to stay in office as long as possible to protect himself and his son Hunter. On top of everything else, dropping out in the middle of the campaign would throw the Democratic Party into disarray, as there’s no shortage of Democrats waiting in the wings for Biden to end his candidacy.
A recession will happen
Biden and his loyalists have long been trying to tell the public that the economy is in great shape. No one actually believes it because they know how much more expensive things are under Biden. Prices are up, and wages are down. Some of the spin we’ve seen from Biden’s boosters in the media is that we’ve avoided a recession. But the truth is that economists have predicted that a recession will happen by this summer. Even CNN, while trying really hard to make the economy sound good, conceded that a “mild recession" is likely coming this year.
Biden will be defeated
Make no mistake about it: Things already don’t look good for Joe Biden. Voters give him poor marks on virtually all the issues that matter in this election. But throw a recession into the mix in the final months of the campaign, and it gets even worse. Can you imagine how difficult it would be for Joe Biden, who spent months and months branding the economy "Bidenomics,” to try to distance himself from responsibility for the recession? It would be an impossible task, and it would only help propel Republicans back into the White House.
Another divided Congress
It has long been predicted that 2024 will be a tough year for Republicans to hold on to the House. I predict another closely divided House, with Democrats getting the edge. As for the Senate, 2024 represents the best opportunity to regain control of the upper chamber since Democrats have significantly more seats to defend. Joe Biden is already a drag for candidates seeking reelection, but assuming a recession occurs, it's inevitable that voters will turn to Republicans to get our country back on track. A recession could help the GOP keep (and potentially grow) their majority in the House, but Democrats have waged multiple successful efforts in various states to challenge redistricting in the courts so they can gerrymander more safe districts for themselves, and it might be enough to tip the scales in their favor.
Biden will attempt mass amnesty
Let's face it, that's what the border crisis is all about. Let illegal immigrants flood the country for years, then, via a grossly unconstitutional executive action, turn them into full-fledged citizens Democratic Party voters. Whether that effort will work will depend on Republicans' willingness to challenge it.
Biden will pardon his son Hunter
Spare me the repeated denials from the White House. Joe Biden will most certainly pardon Hunter Biden, and he'll wait until after the election to do so. Assuming Biden loses the election, his power to protect his son will be limited to his final two and a half months in office, and he won't risk letting his son face years in prison for his crimes. Despite his denials that he'd pardon Hunter, he'll accuse Republicans of targeting his son to get to him.
