For months now, the political tea leaves have spelled disaster for Joe Biden in his ill-advised quest for a second term. Between concerns about his advanced age, cognitive health, and general lack of approval of the job he's been doing, there's a reason why poll after poll shows him not only losing to Donald Trump but to all of his potential Republican rivals in head-to-head match-up polls as well.
However, there was a bit of a caveat.
Last month, I wrote that Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s independent bid for the presidency could be more damaging to Trump than to Joe Biden, and polls appeared to show that. For example, remember how various battleground states had Trump ahead over Biden? Well, when you added Kennedy into the mix, Trump's lead mostly vanished in those polls.
Internal polling from Donald Trump's campaign appeared to confirm that Kennedy's impact was small — and by small, we're talking single digits — but in a close race, it could be extremely consequential.
“It’s single digits, but it’s enough where it counts to make a difference,” a Trump campaign insider said at the time.
Other polls appeared to show the same problem for Trump, and the campaign realized it needed to convey who Robert F. Kennedy Jr. really is to the conservative voters who have been conned into believing he somehow embodies traditional conservative values, when, in fact, he's just another die-hard leftist.
However, a new Reuters/Ipsos poll shows that, contrary to past polls, Trump's lead over Biden actually increases when Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is included on the ballot. Kennedy gets 16% of the vote in such a match-up, while Trump's lead over Biden gets a modest 3-point jump, with Trump's margin increasing from two points to five points.
Related: Is the Presidential Race Really As Close As the Polls Claim?
It's not much, but in a close election, that could make all the difference. As we know, third-party candidates may not have a shot at winning an election, but their presence on the ballot has been blamed for swinging elections in the past. In 1992, Ross Perot's candidacy helped elect Bill Clinton, and in 2000, Ralph Nader helped George W. Bush defeat Al Gore.
What this latest poll indicates is that more Democrats than Republicans would abandon their party and support Kennedy. Frankly, this makes sense, as Kennedy's values reflect those of the Democratic Party, not the Republican Party. This shouldn't have been a huge revelation, but for a long time, it was conservatives propping up Kennedy. Heck, he was actually invited to speak at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) Investor Summit to Save America, which took place in Las Vegas, Nev., in October. Figure that one out.
More from Reuters:
The survey also highlighted the significant risks to Trump's campaign as he faces a series of criminal trials next year. Some 31% of Republican respondents said they would not vote for Trump if he was convicted of a felony crime by a jury. He has denied any criminal wrongdoing.
Some 45% of respondents said Trump was the better candidate for handling the economy, compared to 33% who picked Biden.
Biden, however, had a similar advantage on the issue of abortion, with 44% of respondents saying he was the better candidate for abortion access, compared to 29% who picked Trump.
Some of Trump's strength also appeared tied to concerns by some voters about crime and immigration. Asked which candidate was better on the issues, 42% picked Trump on crime compared to 32% who selected Biden.
Fifty-four percent of respondents agreed with a statement that "immigration is making life harder for native-born Americans," with a similar share saying Trump was the better candidate for the issue.
Is Kennedy's appeal to conservative voters dwindling? Perhaps. But that's no reason to take the 2024 election for granted.
