It’s no secret that Joe Biden is in serious political trouble. There’s hardly a poll that has come out in recent weeks that gives him something to celebrate. Based on polls alone, Democrats ought to be terrified, and some are. But there’s one factor that changes everything and could help Biden get reelected even though everyone seems to understand he’s a disaster.
Make no mistake about it, voters across the political spectrum think he’s too old and cognitively impaired to be president. His record is a disaster, and polls have shown he’s bleeding support from nonwhite voters and young voters. His approval from within his own party is also going down over his public support for Israel. Voters are struggling in this economy and they blame Biden specifically.
It makes a lot of sense why Donald Trump is beating him in several match-up polls and why he’s also beating him in several polls of battleground states. But that might not be enough to overcome Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s candidacy.
The Kennedy scion ruffled a lot of feathers by running for president as a Democrat, and many on the right cheered when he decided to drop out of the Democratic primary and run as an independent. But in reality, Kennedy’s independent candidacy is a genuine problem for the GOP.
According to a recent Quinnipiac University poll, Kennedy is polling better than any independent or third-party candidate since Ross Perot in 1992. And guess what? He’s hurting Trump, not Biden.
Flashback: Does Trump Know That Kennedy’s Independent Bid Hurts Him?
Remember those polls showing Trump beating Biden in battleground states? That’s just in a two-way match-up. Once Kennedy is included in the survey, those leads largely disappear.
The Times/Siena polls were notable, of course, because they sent some Democrats into a tizzy and some Republicans into euphoria earlier this week. Trump came in with a higher share of the vote than Biden in five of these states among registered voters and in four of them among likely voters.
If the final results matched those polls, Trump would win the election.
But when Kennedy was introduced as an option among likely voters, Trump was ahead of Biden in only two states (Georgia and Nevada). His 5-point leads in Arizona and Pennsylvania disappeared into ties. Biden held a well-within-the-margin-of-error edge in Pennsylvania, while the two were tied in Michigan.
Put another way, a clear Trump polling lead became a jumbled mess with no clear favorite to win in the Electoral College thanks to Kennedy. Both Biden (34%) and Trump (36%) were south of 40% in an aggregate across the six states.
It’s a year out from the election, and things could potentially change as we get closer. Barring a major economic shift that propels the United States into historic prosperity, Biden’s goose may be cooked, but with Kennedy on the ballot, it may be Donald Trump who ultimately gets burned.
