The polls show that Joe Biden is in trouble. He’s losing key Democrat constituencies, and he’s losing in national polls and battleground state polls. According to Team Biden, everything is fine. Other incumbents have shown weakness in the polls a year from the election and have gone on to be reelected, they say. But Democrat insiders are getting nervous, and, let’s face it, he’s not getting any younger.
Biden would be 81 years old on Election Day 2024. He’s already the oldest man to serve as president, and his mental health is already in doubt. Before taking office, there was ample evidence that Biden was suffering from cognitive decline. Past presidents have shown to age more rapidly during their tenure due to the high-pressure nature of the presidency. Frankly, it’s almost surprising that Biden has lasted this long, but the stress of the job is clearly taking its toll on him.
So, what if Joe Biden doesn’t end up running? What if he finally acknowledges that he should drop out of the race? According to a recent Harvard-Harris poll, 59% of voters think that Joe Biden shouldn’t run for a second term, including 33% of Democrats, only 42% of voters believe that Biden is “mentally fit” for office, and 58% have doubts about his fitness.
These are concerning numbers for Biden and the Democrats, especially since we’re now less than a year away from the next election. If Biden’s poll numbers get worse, and his mental and physical fitness become even larger liabilities for the Democratic ticket, replacing Biden may be the party’s only way to have a fighting chance in 2024.
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Is it possible that Joe Biden would drop out? It’s unlikely, but before he declared his candidacy Biden conceded that his health would be a factor in that decision: “If I’m in the health I’m in now—if I’m in good health—then, in fact, I would run again.”
Biden ultimately chose to run, but his health remains a legitimate excuse for him to drop out—one that he’s still likely to use if he’s ultimately backed into a corner, assuming his poll numbers continue to decline.
It wouldn’t hurt Democrats to have a back up plan for 2024, and there are plenty of Democrats who clearly have an eye on the White House. Should Biden drop out, it will be up to Democrat primary voters to choose who will carry the baton in the race to hold on to the White House. So, who exactly do Democrat voters see as their backup for Biden if he drops out?
In the Harvard-Harris poll, Democrat voters were asked, "If President Biden decides not to run again in 2024, who would you prefer to be the Democratic candidate?” The results were pure comedy. Seriously, you’re gonna laugh.
Believe it or not, Vice President Kamala Harris comes out on top with 24% selecting her. Then, would you believe it, Hillary Clinton comes in second place with 13%. Coming in third place is Bernie Sanders with 10%, and in fourth is California Gov. Gavin Newsom, who’s been a running a not-so-secret shadow campaign, at just 7%.
That’s right -- the top two choices of Democrat voters are the most unpopular vice president in the history of polling, and the severely unliked Hillary, who already lost to Trump once before. Are Democrat voters really going to gamble the 2024 election on either Harris or Hillary Clinton if Biden has to leave the race?
That would be hilarious.
