The 2024 U.S. presidential election cycle has already begun. Donald Trump officially entered the race last year, and other candidates have been jumping in as well.
Previous reports suggested that Joe Biden was expected to announce his presidential candidacy earlier this year. Despite Biden publicly stating his intention to run, the delay in his official announcement has raised questions about his plans, particularly in light of several polls indicating that a majority of his own party does not support the octogenarian being on the ticket again.
Biden’s announcement was put off until April — but now it has been delayed again. According to a report from Axios, his advisors and allies do not anticipate an announcement regarding his candidacy for re-election any time soon. Some now speculate that he may delay the announcement until as late as July or even the fall.
Related: Lack of Primary Challengers Exposes Deeply Unhealthy Democrat Party
Biden’s advisors insist that there’s no downside to waiting, but there are plenty.
Despite Biden publicly expressing his intention to run, there is uncertainty surrounding his potential candidacy due to his advanced age and poor poll numbers. This uncertainty creates a sense of unease among Democrats who are eager for new leaders to emerge and revitalize the party, and it could hurt Biden’s fundraising if voters aren’t sure he will ultimately run.
Further delay of the decision could be extremely problematic for the Democratic party — especially if he chooses not to run.
If Biden chooses not to run, which is still entirely possible, it gives other Democrats less time to build their campaigns and gain traction.
Axios speculates that this could give Kamala Harris an advantage. Despite being a lackluster vice president who typically makes headlines for making awkward statements as the sitting vice president, she is the de facto heir apparent to Biden. In the event he doesn’t run, she would be the candidate Democrat voters would likely coalesce behind during a shortened campaign. With a compressed timeline, potential Democrat candidates would have less time to fundraise, build their campaigns, and gain name recognition. If he doesn’t run, that means the Democratic Party will have lost several months needed for Democrat voters to assess the candidates, which could result in a fragmented and contentious primary season and weaken the party’s overall chances in the general election.
It looks like California Gov. Gavin Newsom is already laying the groundwork for a potential presidential campaign, effectively building a shadow campaign in anticipation of Biden’s potential retirement while not appearing to be disloyal to the sitting president. It is likely that other Democratic presidential contenders will follow suit, establishing a national network of supporters and resources to smoothly transition into a full-fledged presidential campaign if Biden ultimately decides not to run.
Related: Lack of Primary Challengers Exposes Deeply Unhealthy Democrat Party
So, from where I sit, it is likely more advantageous for Biden to make his intentions clear sooner than later. Presidential campaign seasons have been getting longer and longer for a reason. Biden’s advisors may think it’s wise for Biden to “stay out of the fray” by not announcing sooner, but as the sitting president, he’s already in the fray, whether he likes it or not.
