The popular media narrative since the 2020 election is that Republicans are losing Georgia to the Democrats. It certainly felt that way after the 2021 runoff elections saw the red state elect not one but two Democrats to the U.S. Senate. But is Georgia really turning blue?
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer must have thought so. Last week he was overheard in a hot mic moment admitting to Joe Biden that things aren’t looking good for them in Georgia and seemed shocked by it. “The state where we’re going downhill is Georgia,” Schumer lamented.
But really, this shouldn’t have been all that shocking. Democrats were kidding themselves if they really thought Georgia was becoming a blue state.
Mark Mitchell, the head pollster at Rasmussen Reports, says it “absolutely and unequivocally” is not. “Especially after two years of the Biden administration.”
Mitchell cites Rasmussen’s recent polling as proof that Georgia is still very much a red state. According to their most recent polls, Brian Kemp is beating Stacey Abrams by 10 points — the biggest lead he’s had yet in their polling and over the 50% threshold. Why is Kemp doing so much better than Abrams this year compared to 2018, when he only won by just over two points? Independent voters. Independent voters have swung heavily for the GOP after two years of Biden — so much so that in 2018, Abrams won independents by 10 points, but in 2022, Kemp is up 17 points among independent voters.
And then there is the advantage that Kemp has with crossover votes. Because Abrams only receives 81% of the vote from Democrats, while Kemp receives 87% of the support from Republicans, Kemp has a three-point advantage with voters who switch parties, explains Mitchell.
No wonder Abrams is laying the groundwork to dispute the election results.
And there’s the U.S. Senate race between Herschel Walker and incumbent Raphael Warnock. Currently, Rasmussen has Walker beating Warnock by five points, with Warnock’s support now in the low 40s. Currently, 4% of Georgia voters would pick a third-party candidate, while another 4% aren’t sure. This is the biggest lead Walker has had so far, and he’s getting closer to hitting that 50%-plus-one threshold to avoid a runoff.
But here’s where things get interesting with the Senate race.
“Herschel Walker is doing almost as good as Brian Kemp is among independent voters,” explains Mitchell, “but he’s doing 10 points worse with voters of his own party.” How is this possible? Even Mitchell can’t explain that one. But there’s more. “He’s doing slightly worse among white and black voters than Kemp, but he’s doing way better among Hispanics.”
Herschel Walker has trailed most of this campaign but has had a resurgence since his widely lauded performance in his debate with Warnock. Rasmussen is one of three recent polls that have shown Walker in the lead. Last week, a poll from Trafalgar/Daily Wire showed Walker ahead by just over two points, and the latest InsiderAdvantage poll has Walker up three points.
Another indicator that Georgia isn’t blue is the results of a hypothetical Biden-Trump rematch. According to Rasmussen’s poll, Trump crushes Joe Biden 47% to 39% — a whopping eight-point margin. This is a stunning shift to the close election in 2020 and proves that Democrats were deluding themselves into thinking Georgia was turning into a blue state.
