A Gallup Poll Says Republicans Outnumber Democrats, but Not by Much

It’s a national secret, and it is one that seems almost impossible to believe if you turn on your TV or other device and head directly to the MSN with your bowl in your hand saying, “Please, sir, I want some more.” Actually, it probably doesn’t qualify as a national secret, but there are actually more people identifying as Republicans than Democrats, according to a 2022 Gallup Poll.

But hang on to your confetti. The telephone survey of 10,000 adults revealed that 45% of respondents said they were Republican or leaned in that direction, versus 44% who said that they were Democrats or trended toward that side. Also of note, the number of independents has spiked, with 41% of those polled placing themselves in that camp. Gallup attributes that phenomenon to the Millennial and Gen Z populations who have remained independent, even as they have grown older.

The single-point difference occurred from 2001 to 2003, which Gallup says could have been the result of support for George W. Bush’s war on terror in the wake of the 9/11 attacks. The second time that the parties were this close was from 2010 to 2011, which coincides with a decline in the popularity of the Obama administration and the rise of the Tea Party movement. But for each year of the past decade, the Democrats have held a two-to-three-point advantage. 2022 marked a small change. A small one, but a change.

This was reflected, says Gallup, in the 2022 elections, in which the GOP won a much smaller majority in the House than it was aiming for and failed to take the Senate. But Republicans did gain some ground. The report says in part:

Americans’ dissatisfaction with the state of the nation at a time when Democrats controlled the presidency and both houses of Congress likely is the cause of the 2022 shift in party leanings. Similar shifts occurred in 1994 and 2010. Dissatisfaction with the state of the nation under Republican leadership also likely accounts for the shifts toward greater Democratic Party identification and leaning seen between 2006 and 2008.

Republicans should not take a one-point lead in one poll as a mandate. They would do well to keep in mind that Americans have seen a great deal of tumult in terms of rioting, a war in Europe with which they may not be entirely comfortable, and the price of everything going up. They are also aware, whether they want to admit it or not, that the current administration’s policies for the border are doing more harm than good and that not everyone and everything is racist, despite what keeps getting jammed down their throats. And I’ll bet that deep down in their heart of hearts, they know that men and women are biologically different and that sexualizing children is evil. They just prefer to keep their heads down since there are vocal and vicious groups that claim for some reason that they have been handed power.

In other words, people are sick and tired — and many of them are probably afraid to say it out loud — not just of Republicans or Democrats but of the same old people and policies that may provide a warm fuzzy and a dopamine rush but do not accomplish much else.

The task for Republicans is not how to capitalize on America’s Winter of Discontent but rather to build strategies that will benefit everyone, not just conservatives, and communicate those strategies despite the howls of discord from the media and activists.