GEOPOLITICS IN THE MIDDLE EAST: An invasion of Iraq, and its implications, is online at StrategyPage.com:
These events would be immediately followed by an epidemic of bed wetting on the south side of the Persian Gulf. Once we’ve secured the oil production of Iraq (which necessarily means our control of Kuwait’s) and obtained a friendly regime in Iran, the continued existence of the Saud regime will no longer be in America’s interest. The Saud regime is the dominant source of funding for terrorism, especially terrorism against the United States. I expect loss of Saudi funding will cause Islamic terrorism outside Arab areas and Pakistan to tube, and that in Arab areas will be significantly reduced.
UPDATE: See also Rich Lowry’s current piece at National Review Online.