Four years ago, the final pre-election poll of The New York Times had Biden at +9. Biden was ultimately credited with capturing 51.3% of the vote to Trump’s 46.8% — half that amount, just 4.5 points — so the “unbiased” Times “accidentally” doubled the actual margin.
It wasn't a one-time thing.
The New York Times actually cut Trump’s margin in half in 2016 as well: In their final poll, they had Clinton +4. (The actual margin was just 2.1.)
🚨 JUST IN: The FINAL 2024 election poll from New York Times has just been released.
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 25, 2024
🟡 Today: Tie
🔵 2020: Biden+9
🔵 2016: Clinton+4
👀👀
So there’s a consistent track record of The New York Times inflating the margins to hurt Trump and benefit Democrats. In 2016, it had Clinton +4 (and overestimated her support). In 2020, it had Biden +9 (and overestimated his support.)
That's the backdrop, so you can contextualize what the latest news truly means.
This morning, The New York Times released its final poll of the 2024 election. And according to this poll, nationally (not electorally), it’s now a dead heat. And when you factor in the third-party candidates, Trump is now +1.
🇺🇲 FINAL NATIONAL POLL: NYT/Siena
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 25, 2024
2-WAY
🟥 Trump: 48%
🟦 Harris: 48%
Last poll (9/26-10/6) - 🔵 Harris+3
——
FULL FIELD
🟥 Trump: 47%
🟦 Harris: 46%
🟩 Stein: 2%
🟪 Other: 2%
Last poll - 🔵 Harris +3
——
Crosstabs (2-way)
• Did not vote in 2020: Trump 47-43%
• Biden 2020… pic.twitter.com/jUMbkGM08Z
That’s a 10-point swing from 2020.
MAGA winds are whirling. It’s becoming increasingly more difficult for the media to stick their fingers in their ears and ignore them. Eventually, even for the media, the chickens will come home to roost. Everything has a tipping point.
Even liberals.
It's probably why mainstream publications like Axios are running stories this morning claiming, “Behind the Curtain: Dems fear they’re blowing it.” Their opening line said it all: “A growing number of top Democrats tell us privately they feel Vice President Harris will lose…”
Look, if the Good Ship Kamala is gonna sink to the bottom of the ocean on Election Day, members of the media sure as hell don't want to go down with it. Screw that! And it’s not like Kamala Harris has cultivated vast reservoirs of personal goodwill to keep her afloat; it’s easy come, easy go.
See ya!
Even from afar, the international media has also noted the Democrat’s PR shift. Within just the past 24 hours, the BBC wondered, “Why Harris moved from ‘joy’ to calling Trump ‘a fascist.’”
Of course, you don’t need to read the article to know the answer: It’s because “joy” didn’t work and she’s in danger of a humiliating, soul-crushing, career-ending electoral defeat. But there was one quote in the article that was highly prescient.
The BBC quoted Democratic political strategist Matt Bennett as saying, “Everything she does now is tactical.”
YES! It absolutely, 100% is. THAT’S WHAT I’VE BEEN SAYING OVER AND OVER AGAIN THESE PAST FEW WEEKS!
It’s why her campaign has been so easy to predict: They’re calling plays from the same old, tired PR handbook they’ve been using for decades.
I’ll give you my final election prediction. Nov. 2, 2024, is the final “Saturday Night Live” before the election. I’m gonna pull a Babe Ruth and call my shot: This is when Walz wears a tutu.
Book it.
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