How Likely Are Democrats to Lose the Senate?

At Real Clear Politics, Sean Trende runs the numbers and after numerous caveats, concludes:

With all of that said, this is a very, very challenging map for Democrats. As things presently stand, the map probably makes them underdogs to hold the Senate. Barring some sort of change in the national environment or meltdown in the Republican nominations process — neither of which is impossible — Democrats are likely in for a very long night on Nov. 4.


If 2010 was any indication, we’ll get one sense of how the GOP is doing based on the tone of the MSM in the summer and early fall — if they’re really trashing the American public — aka, their potential customers — good and hard, it’s very likely that, as the late Peter Jennings said in 1994 when Democrats lost both houses of Congress, a “temper tantrum” from the American public is about to follow.

Particularly since, unlike that year, the negative effects of Obamacare that the GOP warned about are no longer merely abstract:

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