As they look to the midterm elections, Republicans have reason to worry — but not despair.
They're going to be fighting uphill all the way to hold onto their majority in the House, which they currently control by the razor-thin margin of just six seats.
That includes one member, California Rep. Kevin Kiley, who officially left the GOP but still caucuses with the party.
"Fragile" hardly does justice to the state of the GOP's House majority.
Democrats look at President Donald Trump's approval ratings and exult:
As of early May, exactly six months before the midterms, Trump's approval in the RealClearPolitics polling averages was an anemic 40.7%, and since then polls have shown him slipping further.
Democrats took more than 40 House seats from the GOP in the 2018 midterms, when Trump's numbers were a little better: RealClear's aggregate notched him at 43.6% approval the day before the election.
House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries is just counting down the days until he becomes speaker.
What could go wrong?
Two things might yet thwart Jeffries' ambitions.
One is the Supreme Court, which has overturned the race-based approach to drawing congressional districts that long served to protect Democratic incumbents and carve out blue seats in red states.
The court also slapped down Democrats' attempts to get the federal judiciary to toss out a Virginia Supreme Court decision that killed their dreams of gerrymandering away four Republican seats in that state.
As things stand, when all the mid-decade redistricting across the country is finished, Republicans stand to gain up to 10 House seats.
Though they have to remember what they're actually getting is more Republican-leaning district maps — they still have to close the deal with voters.
But even if they do, 10 more seats won't stop a wave like the one that swept away the Republican House majority Trump enjoyed at the start of his first term.
Yet the second barrier Democrats will have to overcome is that voters just don't behave the way they used to:
For nearly a quarter of a century, the American public exhibited wild swings in party preference in House elections, creating midterm waves in 1994, 2006, 2010 and 2018.
But 2022 broke the pattern:
Joe Biden's aggregate approval in the polls was at 42.2%, and Republicans expected a massive swing in their direction — yet they didn't get it, just as Democrats got no boost in the House two years earlier despite their success in the 2020 presidential election.
Biden claimed record numbers of voters in his race, yet Democrats actually lost seats in the House that year.
Trump's victory in 2024 also didn't bring about much change in the House; Republicans lost two seats.
In other words, the last three elections — in 2020, 2022 and 2024 — have told a tale of surprising stability, with only small adjustments to the numbers of Republicans and Democrats in the House, leading to nerve-rackingly narrow margins of control for each party.
Jeffries should be careful what he wishes for. He might wind up with only a slender majority, one that could be lost if too many geriatric Democrats die in office.
As of a year ago, more than 50 House Democrats were over the age of 70. Three have since died.
Republicans don't have quite as many elderly members in the House, but so small is the GOP majority that even a single maverick member like Thomas Massie can threaten to derail major legislation or trigger new elections for speaker.
Pain has forced Republicans to get serious, however, and Trump has been relentless about imposing discipline on the party.
Massie can attest to that, as can the five Republican state senators who lost their primaries on May 5 after Trump condemned them for opposing a plan to redraw the state's congressional districts to give the GOP a greater edge.
This is another reason to think Republicans have a fighting chance in November:
Despite the headlines in hostile media, the Republican Party is remarkably unified behind Trump, who can end the careers of state senators in Indiana or a United States senator like Bill Cassidy in Louisiana.
Trump can do that because — and only because — the voters are with him.
If House elections have indeed reached a rough equilibrium since 2020, there will be no wave, and even a pickup of just eight to 10 seats through redistricting could save the Republican majority by the skin of its teeth.
Democrats are counting on this November being a replay of 2018, or George W. Bush's disastrous second midterms in 2006.
But look to the primaries so far for a clue: This is a very different Republican Party, and it's well-adapted for the political landscape Trump has remade; in an era of close elections, it's a party that can win.
Editor’s Note: The 2026 Midterms will determine the fate of President Trump’s America First agenda. Republicans must maintain control of both chambers of Congress.
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