Donald Trump knows exactly what he's doing with tariffs.
Everyone else is baffled: Why did the president announce heavy taxes on imports from Canada as well as Mexico and China?
America has an obvious interest in economic decoupling from China, a great-power rival.
And by first imposing and then suspending tariffs on Mexican imports, Trump was able to bring Mexico's government to the negotiating table on his terms.
That's won immediate results in the fight against illegal immigration and traffic in fentanyl and other drugs into our country:
President Claudia Sheinbaum is now sending 10,000 troops to secure Mexico's side of the border.
She has one month to get the job done and strike a bigger, long-term deal with the United States -- or tariffs snap back in March.
Then there are those Yukon cartels and the Canadian Communist Party, and ... wait, what?
What trouble could America possibly have with Canada that justifies a 25% tariff on the goods they sell us?
Like Mexico, Canada has been given a 30-day reprieve to work things out.
There's more to talk about than just the northern border.
Trump needles Prime Minister Justin Trudeau about turning Canada into our 51st state.
It's hard to imagine tariffs high enough to accomplish what a couple of invasions couldn't achieve over the last 200-odd years, though:
America tried to take Canada by force in the Revolutionary War and the War of 1812, both times hoping Canadians would spontaneously turn against their government and demand the rights and liberties of American citizens.
A core component of Canada's national identity, however, comes from the pro-British Tories who fled the American colonies rather than join our revolution.
Even Canadian conservatives, including the man with the best hope of beating the Liberal party at the next election, Pierre Poilievre, don't want to become Americans.
They're patriotically outraged by the tariff threat, and they're in political danger if Canadians rally to the Liberal government as defender of their sovereignty and national honor.
But President Trump knows all that.
He's using tariffs to set expectations with our northern neighbor, just as he has with China and Mexico.
Sometimes the best thing a person or a nation can do for a friend is get tough.
Canada has long been unserious about meeting its security obligations to its own people and NATO allies alike.
NATO members are supposed to contribute at least 2% of their GDP to defense.
Canada spent a meager 1.37% last year, with Trudeau promising his country would reach the 2% threshold by 2032.
That's not the pledge of a leader who feels any urgency about providing for his nation's security, let alone helping friends when there's a war near their borders.
Until now, Canadian prime ministers have been content to let America foot the security bill -- which is what leads Trump to ask why we should pay for it if the land isn't ours.
His tough treatment of Trudeau sends a message to Europe, where more NATO states are beginning to meet their 2% minimum contributions, but just barely:
Germany, for example, spent 1.3% on defense in 2023 and only brought that up to a little more than 2% last year, despite NATO facing its greatest challenge since the end of the Cold War with Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
In the 21st century, America can't afford to be ripped off by friends any more than it can afford to be unwary about Chinese power or Mexican disorder.
Trump is using peaceful -- if painful -- methods to change the behavior of friend and foe alike.
To be sure, he thinks "tariff" is the most beautiful word in the English language: Trump is unabashedly a tariff man.
But he's a dealmaker first and foremost, and the tariffs can be avoided if the other side is willing to reach a deal that better serves America's interests.
After all, trade with America is in the best interest of everyone else from China to Mexico to Canada -- we're providing something, yet not getting enough in return.
Trump means to change that, and tariffs are a powerful tool for doing so.
The president's strategy can even help bring jobs and supply chains back to America without the tariffs having to go into effect.
Businesses terrified by the prospect of tariffs have an incentive to get ahead of them by moving production back to America and devoting greater attention to the home market.
And American companies dependent on foreign imports have every reason to start breaking free of their dependence right now by finding substitute components that won't be subject to tariffs.
Trump knows how to win trade wars before the first shot, so to speak, is fired.
Join the conversation as a VIP Member