2022 Is Over Except for the Lawsuits. Use the Data to Start Planning for 2024.

According to exit polling data, Republicans continued to make headway with minority voters on Election Day in 2022. If the exit polls hold, the GOP had its best performance yet with Hispanic voters in a midterm election. According to NBC’s exit polls, Republicans also increased their share of the black vote from 8% in 2020 to 13%. GOP candidates took 58% of the white vote and 30% of all minorities.

In a simple calculation using that distribution, out of 1,000 voters, Republicans would take 503, and Democrats would earn 476. Of course, House districts will have wildly different demographic characteristics, and states may as well, but basic math demonstrates Republicans should have had an advantage at the ballot box in 2022. Yet, one did not materialize nationwide. This trend follows 2020 when a similar, though smaller, pattern in the demographic vote share existed.

When I heard that John Fetterman outperformed Biden in Pennsylvania, I felt there were still some areas for improvement in election security. However, doubts aside, most of the disappointments from yesterday have a plausible explanation. One could be that no race is beyond the margin of cheating when some states have political machines that date back to Tammany Hall or the mob. If you live in one and are conservative, I suggest moving. There is a case to be made for balkanization, and we all saw it play out in Florida last night.

In four years, the Sunshine State went from a purple state nail-biter to a +20 win for Gov. Ron DeSantis. This transition was possible due to his excellent COVID-19 policy and success in culture wars. It persuaded an unprecedented number of Hispanic voters to pull the lever for him in 2022. Once again, he won the Cuban vote but also went up 21 points with Puerto Rican voters and 16 with other Latinos. However, it is also partially due to mass immigration from other states like California and New York. Conservatives tired of the deep blue nonsense flocked to the state and rewarded Republicans for delivering on policy promises.

Looking forward, which begins today, Republicans nationwide should examine the 2022 exit polling and figure out how to continue the progress seen for the last two cycles. The only way we keep making inroads in blue states and make the red states even redder is to bring together a class-based coalition of patriotic Americans who believe in the American Dream.

First, Gen X is our generation GOP. White voters between 45 and 64 make up 28% of the electorate and, according to the exit poll, 63% of them voted for Republicans on Tuesday. Likewise, Gen X Latinos selected GOP candidates at a rate of 44%. Overall, voters from 40-49 voted for Republican candidates 52% of the time in 2022, and those from 50-64 did 55% of the time. Our kids are open to Republican candidates, too. Gen Z aged 18-24 voted for Republicans 36% of the time. White voters 18-29 selected GOP candidates 40% of the time, and 30% of Latinos the same age did as well.

2022 trends with black voters are a bit different. The largest share of the black vote for the GOP was among Millennial voters aged 30-44 at 17%. Gen X was next at 13%.

It also seems men, tired of the anti-masculinity messages from the radical left, make up a sizable Republican constituency. In every race demographic, the percentage of men who vote for Republican candidates exceeds women. This gap is the largest among Hispanic voters, with men selecting the Republican candidate at a rate of 45% while women do at 33%.

Some of the most considerable differences are seen when the data gets arranged by gender, race, and education level.

Republicans and red states need to reform career preparation and higher education to provide options focused on skill development and certification, not indoctrination. This work is every bit as important as reforming K-12 education. The GOP also needs to get back to a prosperity agenda. Middle and upper-middle-class voters said they voted Republican:

In an agenda focused on prosperity, the GOP should also focus on policy solutions that make it easier for young Americans to get married and form families. Married Americans and those with children are more likely to vote Republican. Strong, prosperous families are also necessary for the future of the republic.