For a couple of years now, Georgia has had the reputation of being a purple state or at least a swing state. Recent election results have contributed to this narrative, but it's not exactly the reality.
Georgia is more of a red state than most pundits are willing to give it credit for; however, the outsize influence of metro Atlanta, other urban areas, and college towns has helped Democrats get more of a leg up in recent years. Be prepared for a lot of background to follow, but recent history can show how the "purple state" moniker doesn't easily fit the Peach State.
Here's how the last couple of elections gave Georgia that purple-state reputation. In 2020, a lot of suburban voters didn't care for the way Donald Trump criticized Gov. Brian Kemp (R-Ga.) and the way he opened the state back up from COVID lockdowns earlier than any other state. That led to a lot of Republicans staying home or skipping the top election on the ballot.
The specter of 2020 election shenanigans loomed over the 2021 Senate runoff, in which both of our senators were up for reelection (one in a regular election and the other in a special election). Thanks to worries of vote-stealing, exacerbated by Democrat billboards that discouraged Republicans from voting because "they're going to steal your vote," 750,000 GOP voters stayed home from the runoff, giving us two Democrat senators.
The 2022 Senate election saw a different issue that hurt the Republicans. Herschel Walker, the Republican candidate, couldn't shake a constant barrage of allegations against him as well as doubts that he would be an effective legislator. Walker is a childhood hero of mine — for football, not politics — but he was a weak candidate, and voters thought so, too. His was the only statewide race where the Republican lost; all other GOP candidates won by impressive margins.
With those outlying elections behind us, 2024 seems different. Anecdote isn't data, but I see a lot of Trump enthusiasm throughout much of North Georgia. Every day, I see more Trump signs in yards, including yards with multiple signs. Trump fans talk a good game, and tons of them have voted early. Trump patched things up with Kemp, who has a formidable political machine.
On the other side, I'm not sure how much enthusiasm there is for Harris. Naturally, hardcore Democrats are all-in for her, but I'm not seeing much excitement for her among rank-and-file Democrat voters.
Once again, anecdote isn't data, but here's an example. There's a ranch not far from me, and its owners are black. Every election season, the owners put out signs for black candidates — they even have a sign for Rep. David Scott (D-Ga.), even though the ranch isn't in his district. But no Kamala signs.
Nevertheless, the presidential race is going to be tight. Our partners at Decision Desk HQ have Georgia listed as a toss-up, and the RealClearPolitics polling averages give Trump a slight edge. For what it's worth, the AI computer model at SportsCasting says that Trump will take the Peach State.
It has felt like anybody’s game for months now in the Peach State. Here’s what BetGeorgia had to say as of Oct.30:
Just a reminder that there is no political betting allowed in any of the 50 states, but Georgia will once again be a hotbed for voters in a key Southern battleground state come November. In 2020, current President Joe Biden defeated Donald Trump by a mere 0.3% (49.5% to 49.2%). Four years earlier, Trump upended Hillary Clinton by a solid margin, 50.4% to 45.4%.
With our recent compilation of poll data early on in the election process, it appears the state will go back to Republican red as they are the slight favorite at +104 (49%) to Democrat blue +110 (47.6%).
So it looks like the margin will be razor-thin, which makes me nervous (then again, all elections make me nervous), but my gut tells me that Trump will pull this one off.
Moving on to other elections, neither of our senators is up for reelection, so we’re stuck with our two biggest mistakes of the 21st century for another couple of years. We can out Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) in two years and Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) in four.
Georgia’s 14 House seats shouldn’t give us any surprises. 270 to Win predicts that every one of the seats is safe for the incumbent party, which means that 13 of the 14 current House members should return to office — including Rep. David Scott, who was such a non-factor in his successful 2022 campaign that people wondered if he was dead. Every Georgia district is either solid red or solid blue in 270 to Win’s prognostication, so the Peach State should easily retain its nine GOP seats and five Democrat seats.
The only district that’s guaranteed to elect a new representative is the 3rd District, which covers the west-central part of the state. Current Rep. Drew Ferguson (R-Ga.) is retiring, and Republican Brian Jack should handily defeat Democrat Maura Keller.
In the General Assembly, Republicans should retain their majority in both houses. However, the Associated Press’s resident far-left Atlanta reporter Jeff Amy crowed in a recent article about how Democrats are doing their darndest to cut into the state house majority.
According to The Downballot’s guide to state legislative elections, the state Senate has five potentially competitive races, four of which are current Republican seats. If the Dems flip all four and the GOP flips the one, the Republicans would still have a slim 29-27 majority. In the state House, The Downballot sees 17 Republican seats and five Democrat seats as potentially competitive races. If every one of them flipped, the House would be deadlocked at 90 seats apiece.
What concerns me most beyond the presidential election is the three ballot questions. As I wrote two weeks ago, all three of them deserve an enthusiastic yes vote, but Democrat propaganda has used class warfare rhetoric to try to scare people into voting no. I’ve even seen well-meaning conservatives blindly parroting this propaganda without doing their homework. I hope the propaganda machine hasn’t poisoned the well for three worthwhile initiatives.
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